Manifold Creator
Josh
@JoshSnider
Markets by Josh
Outcomes of Trump's Second Strait of Hormuz ultimatum
$90K480 tradersResolved
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Will this market be above 50% when it closes?
$23K30 tradersResolved
49%
What day of the week will Gemini 3 be released?
$17K40 tradersResolved
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What will happen during the fifth run of Claude Plays Pokemon? (Opus 4.1)
$15K34 tradersResolved
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GTA 6 released before August 1, 2026?
$15K27 tradersopen
1%
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of 2026?
$14K34 tradersResolved
99%
Will Claude become a Pokèmon Master by the end of August 2026?
$9K8 tradersResolved
99%
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
$9K50 tradersopen
9%
What will be the next model released by Anthropic?
$8K27 tradersResolved
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In 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
$7K43 tradersopen
60%
Anthropic releases new model in September 2025?
$6K46 tradersResolved
99%
ClaudePlaysPokemon gets past Rocket Hideout with Opus 4.5?
$4K9 tradersResolved
54%
Mojtaba Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran on July 1st, 2026
$3K32 tradersopen
95%
Claude Sonnet 4.7 Released before February 2026
$3K25 tradersResolved
1%
Anthropic releases new model in October 2025?
$3K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will this Dan Mac tweet hold up?
$3K2 tradersResolved
48%
Anthropic releases any new Claude before their Super Bowl ad runs?
$2K10 tradersResolved
88%
How will reading "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All" change my P(Doom)?
$2K22 tradersResolved
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Any new Claude Model Before May 16th?
$2K31 tradersResolved
3%
"Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All - Eliezer Yudkowsky" exceeds 100K views before November?
$1K15 tradersResolved
99%
Any new Claude Model today? (2026/05/28)
$1K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will my YouTube Channel have more than 15 subscribers at the end of June 2026?
$9647 tradersopen
99%
Will more than 5 people trade in this market?
$9167 tradersResolved
99%
Will my YouTube Channel have more than 10 subscribers at the end of January 26?
$7203 tradersResolved
2%
Any new Veo model released during Google I/O
$3505 tradersResolved
7%
Will this market be below 50% at close?
$21611 tradersResolved
51%
Claude Mythos released today? (2026/06/9)
$1502 tradersopen
63%
[URGENT] Will WTI increase during Hegseth's press conference this morning?
$192 tradersResolved
50%
$GOOGL closing price on 2025/10/10 an odd number of pennies?
$00 tradersResolved
50%