Manifold Creator
Jonathan Ray
@JonathanRay
Markets by Jonathan Ray
Who will be the 2024 Democratic nominee for president?
$1.1M179 tradersResolved
—
Will I accumulate 420k YES shares on this market?
$493K65 tradersResolved
100%
Will this market ever go below 81%?
$406K124 tradersResolved
95%
If the TikTok "ban" bill passes, will its enforcement be blocked by courts?
$297K196 tradersResolved
1%
Will this market ever go below 69%?
$227K182 tradersResolved
100%
Will bitcoin be over $100k on April 5, 2025?
$202K198 tradersResolved
1%
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Biden’s re-election campaign?
$201K52 tradersResolved
99%
Will Mira's GPT4 sudoku market resolve to 50%?
$173K96 tradersResolved
100%
Will this market stay above 69% for 69 days?
$155K39 tradersResolved
100%
How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?
$144K336 tradersopen
—
Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?
$132K88 tradersopen
82%
How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?
$131K41 tradersopen
—
Will this market be above 52% when it closes?
$128K96 tradersResolved
51%
Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?
$127K47 tradersResolved
99%
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
$104K137 tradersopen
3%
Will the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF before Jan 20 2025?
$98K64 tradersResolved
100%
Will the next change to the fed funds rate be upward?
$91K54 tradersResolved
1%
Will my follow-up covid test be positive?
$63K57 tradersResolved
35%
Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?
$62K72 tradersopen
36%
Will AI porn videos be better than real porn by the end of 2026?
$60K207 tradersopen
54%
[5k subsidy] Will “minimum viable restrictive diet” succeed?
$51K27 tradersResolved
—
Will Destiny bang Aella at Manifest?
$47K69 tradersResolved
1%
Will FairlyRandom roll a critical hit?
$41K16 tradersResolved
5%
Who will be elected POTUS in 2024?
$39K105 tradersResolved
—
Will any permanent speaker of the house be elected without bipartisan support before 2025?
$37K29 tradersResolved
100%
Will Trump be in a state of incarceration on Election Day 2024?
$37K73 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an orgy at manifest 2?
$35K82 tradersResolved
7%
If there is an orgy at manifest 2, will I be invited?
$35K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will the fed funds rate peak above 5.5% in 2023?
$32K50 tradersResolved
2%
Will team YES own 9000 or fewer shares at close?
$31K38 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon Musk have another child before 2025?
$29K12 tradersResolved
100%
Will Scott Alexander have a baby before 2025?
$29K29 tradersResolved
100%
Will manifold increase the cost of market creation before 2025?
$27K20 tradersResolved
100%
Will this market be in the interval [22%, 69%] when it closes?
$26K20 tradersResolved
20%
Middle class vs poors and gigawhales
$25K52 tradersResolved
4%
Will someone under 70 be elected US president in 2028?
$24K140 tradersopen
84%
What will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
$24K27 tradersopen
—
Will I have over 9000 manifold dollars profit at the end of June?
$24K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
$23K58 tradersResolved
1%
What will be Trump's cause of death?
$23K103 tradersopen
—