Manifold Creator
Joe and Seth
@JoeandSeth
Markets by Joe and Seth
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be shown alive on video between March 8th and April 1, 2026?
$17K69 tradersResolved
2%
Will Honda and Nissan officially announce a merger agreement by March 17, 2025?
$12K20 tradersResolved
1%
What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)
$6K8 tradersopen
—
When will the first self-replicating spaceship take off?
$6K22 tradersopen
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Will there be a news article about Manifest x DC 2025?
$6K7 tradersResolved
2%
Ratio of Claude Mythos METR 50% to 80% time horizon
$6K9 tradersopen
—
OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2026?
$6K20 tradersopen
50%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first shown alive on video between April 1st and May 1, 2026?
$5K36 tradersResolved
4%
Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2028?
$3K14 tradersopen
8%
Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)
$3K18 tradersopen
21%
Second major LLM-chatbot integrates thread-memory by EoY 2025
$3K11 tradersResolved
92%
OpenAI memory-using chatbot causes fatal domestic dispute by EOY2025?
$2K14 tradersResolved
9%
How long will I travel in Japan this year (# nights)?
$2K3 tradersopen
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Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)
$2K11 tradersopen
13%
First year a specific AI model/framework is named as Time's Person of the Year
$2K2 tradersopen
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When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
$2K12 tradersopen
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Silksong 100% Speedrun WR time end 2026
$2K4 tradersopen
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Lightcell Energy reaches 30% efficiency from any fuel?
$1K3 tradersopen
17%
Lightcell receives ≥$1M government thermophotovoltaic contract/grant by 2027?
$1K4 tradersopen
18%
Roadtrip: New England leg favorite state
$1K5 tradersResolved
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Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2030?
$1K8 tradersopen
20%
Roadtrip: rustbelt leg favorite state
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Roadtrip: will I be gainfully employed in one year?
$1K8 tradersopen
33%
Daily LLM assistant personal usage exceeds 2 hours for >10% of users by end-2025?
$1K18 tradersResolved
29%
First year Netherlands taxes unrealized capital gains
$1K1 tradersopen
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Will I hold a session at Less.Online 2026
$1K14 tradersResolved
73%
Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2035?
$8995 tradersopen
38%
Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?
$8468 tradersopen
24%
When Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first be shown alive on video?
$8292 tradersopen
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Roadtrip: will I complete my trip and visit all 48 states?
$7529 tradersResolved
70%
Release year of first major studio positive Trump biopic
$7516 tradersopen
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Roadtrip: first leg favorite state
$7456 tradersResolved
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Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?
$6369 tradersopen
69%
If X is the Republican nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
$5624 tradersopen
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30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028
$4816 tradersopen
36%
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting
$4655 tradersopen
80%
Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026?
$3889 tradersopen
39%
Will Vince beat Tyler at chess right now
$3795 tradersResolved
95%
Roadtrip: East coast leg favorite state
$3444 tradersResolved
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Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass?
$3263 tradersopen
6%