Manifold Creator
Joe Reeve
@JoeReeve
Markets by Joe Reeve
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
$27K168 tradersResolved
60%
Will Vercel fork the React codebase before 2024?
$2K21 tradersResolved
3%
Will 20% or more of Japan's energy be from nuclear sources before 2030?
$2K23 tradersopen
76%
Will Hinkley Point C be complete by the end of June 2027?
$1K12 tradersopen
7%
How many humans will have spent more than 1 week on Mars by 2124?
$1K15 tradersopen
—
Will Nathan's EAG after party feel overcrowded at any point in the evening?
$1K10 tradersResolved
30%
Will Vercel buy Bun by the end of 2024?
$41710 tradersResolved
13%
Will a UK party that doesn't yet exist gain over 50k members before the next UK General Election?
$3787 tradersclosed
10%
How many people will attend Nathan's EAG after party?
$2402 tradersResolved
47%
Will ChatGPT have the largest number of subscribers of all LLM chat tools at the end of 2025?
$21410 tradersclosed
36%
Will NHS England's budget be under £100bn in 2030/31?
$2126 tradersopen
12%
Will Hinkley Point C be completed for under £30bn?
$1206 tradersopen
24%
Will Mariia go bouldering in 2023?
$775 tradersResolved
85%
How much will nuclear power cost by 2040? (Price per MWe)
$553 tradersopen
—
How many humans will have spent more than 1 week on Mars by 2124?
$130 tradersResolved
61%