Manifold Creator
Jeff Berman
@JeffBerman
Markets by Jeff Berman
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
$55K56 tradersResolved
1%
Will Tim Walz be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?
$46K90 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?
$41K56 tradersopen
3%
Who will win the Most Valuable Player award in the 2024 NBA Finals?
$33K65 tradersResolved
—
Will JD Vance be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?
$31K132 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?
$30K74 tradersopen
3%
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democrat presidential nominee?
$24K36 tradersResolved
2%
President Biden will next appear live on camera — not a video, not recorded — on what date?
$23K7 tradersResolved
—
The result of the US Presidential election will not be certified by Jan. 6, 2025.
$23K57 tradersResolved
1%
When will Joe Biden resign from, be removed from, or otherwise give up the Presidency?
$21K52 tradersResolved
—
Who will Biden pre-emptively pardon before leaving office?
$20K63 tradersResolved
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Will Trump issue an executive order to shut down the Department of Education or move functions to other departments?
$20K46 tradersResolved
66%
Will pharma ads be banned from U.S. television in 2025?
$20K41 tradersResolved
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Will a major news outlet incorrectly report a state winner in the Presidential election?
$20K67 tradersResolved
2%
Will Trump threaten to pull US out of NATO while at Davos this month?
$19K94 tradersResolved
3%
How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?
$19K54 tradersResolved
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Will street protests against Trump's agenda result in at least one death in 2025?
$15K56 tradersResolved
99%
Will USAID cease to exist as a government agency within 3 months of the Trump administration?
$15K51 tradersResolved
2%
Will Zelensky and Trump meet in person in March?
$15K89 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris prior to November 5, 2024?
$15K64 tradersResolved
2%
If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day?
$14K43 tradersResolved
1%
Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?
$14K50 tradersopen
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Trump voids Biden’s pardons?
$13K57 tradersResolved
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When will Diddy (Sean Combs) die, of any cause?
$12K11 tradersopen
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When will Saudi Arabia sign onto the Abraham Accords?
$12K23 tradersopen
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Who else will Biden pre-emptively pardon before leaving office?
$11K26 tradersResolved
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Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?
$11K38 tradersopen
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Will Iran try to assassinate Trump?
$11K23 tradersResolved
3%
Will the midair collision at Reagan Airport be shown to be terrorism?
$10K29 tradersResolved
3%
Will California hold a vote to secede from the U.S.?
$9K43 tradersResolved
6%
Will Kamala Harris be appointed to another government position, such as Supreme Court Justice, before the Nov. election?
$9K32 tradersResolved
2%
Is the Oval Office desk bugged?
$9K15 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE?
$8K49 tradersResolved
74%
Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate (at the moment, Trump and Harris) will concede defeat by Dec. 5, 2024.
$8K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be higher than Biden’s after:
$8K32 tradersResolved
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How many FBI informants will be shown to have been involved in the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?
$7K22 tradersclosed
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Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire before the presidential election in November?
$6K19 tradersResolved
2%
What assets will become part of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
$6K39 tradersResolved
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Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?
$5K22 tradersResolved
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Will Trump withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council by the end of this month?
$5K11 tradersResolved
90%