Manifold Creator

Jeff Berman

@JeffBerman

Markets by Jeff Berman

Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?

$55K56 tradersResolved
1%

Will Tim Walz be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?

$46K90 tradersResolved
1%

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize?

$41K56 tradersopen
3%

Who will win the Most Valuable Player award in the 2024 NBA Finals?

$33K65 tradersResolved

Will JD Vance be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?

$31K132 tradersResolved
1%

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

$30K74 tradersopen
3%

Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democrat presidential nominee?

$24K36 tradersResolved
2%

President Biden will next appear live on camera — not a video, not recorded — on what date?

$23K7 tradersResolved

The result of the US Presidential election will not be certified by Jan. 6, 2025.

$23K57 tradersResolved
1%

When will Joe Biden resign from, be removed from, or otherwise give up the Presidency?

$21K52 tradersResolved

Who will Biden pre-emptively pardon before leaving office?

$20K63 tradersResolved

Will Trump issue an executive order to shut down the Department of Education or move functions to other departments?

$20K46 tradersResolved
66%

Will pharma ads be banned from U.S. television in 2025?

$20K41 tradersResolved

Will a major news outlet incorrectly report a state winner in the Presidential election?

$20K67 tradersResolved
2%

Will Trump threaten to pull US out of NATO while at Davos this month?

$19K94 tradersResolved
3%

How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?

$19K54 tradersResolved

Will street protests against Trump's agenda result in at least one death in 2025?

$15K56 tradersResolved
99%

Will USAID cease to exist as a government agency within 3 months of the Trump administration?

$15K51 tradersResolved
2%

Will Zelensky and Trump meet in person in March?

$15K89 tradersResolved
1%

Will there be an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris prior to November 5, 2024?

$15K64 tradersResolved
2%

If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day?

$14K43 tradersResolved
1%

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

$14K50 tradersopen

Trump voids Biden’s pardons?

$13K57 tradersResolved

When will Diddy (Sean Combs) die, of any cause?

$12K11 tradersopen

When will Saudi Arabia sign onto the Abraham Accords?

$12K23 tradersopen

Who else will Biden pre-emptively pardon before leaving office?

$11K26 tradersResolved

Which Supreme Court Justice will retire or die next?

$11K38 tradersopen

Will Iran try to assassinate Trump?

$11K23 tradersResolved
3%

Will the midair collision at Reagan Airport be shown to be terrorism?

$10K29 tradersResolved
3%

Will California hold a vote to secede from the U.S.?

$9K43 tradersResolved
6%

Will Kamala Harris be appointed to another government position, such as Supreme Court Justice, before the Nov. election?

$9K32 tradersResolved
2%

Is the Oval Office desk bugged?

$9K15 tradersResolved
2%

Will there be an attempted physical assault on anyone working for DOGE?

$8K49 tradersResolved
74%

Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate (at the moment, Trump and Harris) will concede defeat by Dec. 5, 2024.

$8K20 tradersResolved
2%

Will Trump’s approval rating be higher than Biden’s after:

$8K32 tradersResolved

How many FBI informants will be shown to have been involved in the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021?

$7K22 tradersclosed

Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire before the presidential election in November?

$6K19 tradersResolved
2%

What assets will become part of the U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?

$6K39 tradersResolved

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

$5K22 tradersResolved

Will Trump withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council by the end of this month?

$5K11 tradersResolved
90%