Manifold Creator
Jay Socrates
@JaySocrates
Markets by Jay Socrates
Yudkowsky and Soares Podcast Tour
$28K62 tradersResolved
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Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025?
$9K6 tradersResolved
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Will a Kimi reasoning model top LMArena by EOY2025?
$6K13 tradersResolved
3%
What will the context window of Claude 4.1 be?
$5K7 tradersResolved
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Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?
$4K12 tradersResolved
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Focus Group Podcast on AI by EOY 2026
$4K2 tradersResolved
96%
Montreal air quality on June 23rd?
$2K13 tradersResolved
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Will Perplexity be acquired by EOY 2025?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will I reach 10k profit by September 2025?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
Zvi Mowshowitz Podcast/Interview 2026 Appearances
$2K4 tradersopen
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Will Dwarkesh Patel's "Notes on China" video reach 1M views by EOY2025?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2026?
$1K6 tradersResolved
1%
DC air quality on June 14th?
$1K5 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic have an AI search product by EOY 2025?
$1K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will more than 50 (~1%) Title IV institutions close in the 2024-2025 school year?
$1K4 tradersResolved
98%
OpenAI updates custom GPTs by EOY2025
$9685 tradersResolved
99%
Will Kara Swisher's group successfully purchase the Washington Post from Jeff Bezos?
$8954 tradersResolved
1%
Will the TAKE IT DOWN Act pass Congress by July 1st 2025?
$8157 tradersResolved
95%
Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?
$77512 tradersopen
54%
Which revolutions will Mike Duncan cover in future seasons of the Revolutions podcast?
$6407 tradersopen
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Sarah Paine 2026 Podcast appearance
$5945 tradersopen
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Which California Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?
$5344 tradersopen
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Which Texas Colleges/Universities will close before 2027?
$3123 tradersopen
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Will Mike Duncan's Martian Revolution (Season 11 of Revolutions) end with a military dictatorship on Mars?
$3115 tradersResolved
17%
Sombr releases album with "sombrero" in title by 2030
$1935 tradersopen
27%
Will more than 5% of 2024 Title IV institutions close by EOY 2029?
$1001 tradersopen
80%
Will the YouTube app restore functional access to the subscriptions feed by Friday, June 6th?
$808 tradersResolved
54%
Which characters will die by the end of The Magnus Protocol?
$00 tradersResolved
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