Manifold Creator
James Bills
@JamesBills
Markets by James Bills
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?
$283K209 tradersopen
12%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2023?
$198K117 tradersResolved
100%
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by June 30th 2024?
$37K38 tradersResolved
100%
Will the US dollar hyperinflate before June 15th 2023?
$26K24 tradersResolved
0%
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by September 30th 2023?
$20K49 tradersResolved
0%
Lex & Eliezer podcast will have better youtube reach AND ratio than Lex & Altman by May 15th 2023
$16K16 tradersResolved
0%
Will Australia beat Denmark in tonight's world cup match?
$16K31 tradersResolved
99%
Will Blackrock have a Bitcoin spot ETF approved by December 31st 2023?
$13K50 tradersResolved
1%
Will Andrew Tate be convicted for human trafficking in Romania in 2023?
$13K34 tradersResolved
2%
Will Andrew Tate be convicted for human trafficking in Romania by the end of 2024?
$13K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will Scientists at the NIF produce a net energy gain > 200% from a fusion reaction in 2023?
$11K60 tradersResolved
4%
The Indigenous Australian Voice to Parliament Referendum will resolve "Yes" in 2023
$8K15 tradersResolved
1%
Kamala Harris WCBUBWHB
$8K14 tradersResolved
1%
When will a spot Ethereum ETF be approved? [Mod Note: This should require both the 19b-4 and S-1 Filings]
$6K20 tradersResolved
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Will England beat Spain in the Women's world cup grand finals?
$5K14 tradersResolved
0%
Will Ethereum break all time highs before the first Ether spot ETF is listed publicly in US markets.
$3K7 tradersResolved
8%
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
$3K89 tradersopen
37%
In 2024 it will be possible to jailbreak chat gpt with prompt engineering.
$3K23 tradersResolved
95%
Which Spot Bitcoin ETF will have the largest AUM?
$3K18 tradersResolved
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If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?
$2K52 tradersResolved
42%
Jan 2024 Japanese earthquake does not produce a sizeable tsunami.
$2K14 tradersResolved
88%
Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2024?
$2K17 tradersResolved
98%
Will the Australia vs france women's world cup match go to a penalty shoot out?
$1K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will I have 15 followers at market close on 31st July 2023?
$1K11 tradersResolved
0%
Death toll in Israel-Hamas war - United States Side
$8539 tradersclosed
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What will US Sovereign debt be in 2030?
$58310 tradersopen
75%
Will the 2023-2024 Australian Bushfire season be worse than 2020?
$5708 tradersResolved
25%
Diablo 4 will sell over 5 million copies in the first 24 hours after release in 2023 (including pre-ordered copies)
$49013 tradersResolved
60%
Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028
$33011 tradersopen
55%
What will US Sovereign debt be in 2035?
$3078 tradersopen
36%
How much primary credit will the Fed have added by June 30th 2023 (in billions USD)?
$2454 tradersResolved
77%
When will a spot Solana ETF be approved? [Mod Note: This should require both the 19b-4 and S-1 Filings]
$2424 tradersopen
—
What will US Sovereign debt be in 2040?
$2197 tradersopen
62%
Will a conspiracy emerge that senior Israeli officials intentionally turned a blind eye to planned attack?
$2096 tradersResolved
9%
What will US Sovereign debt be in 2030 (In Bitcoin)?
$1717 tradersopen
63%
What will be the combined AUM of all US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs at the end of March 1st?
$1704 tradersResolved
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What will be the combined AUM of all US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs at the end of March 1st?
$1693 tradersResolved
—
If Gary Gensler is replaced as the SEC chair, will the replacement provide formal guidance that Ether is not a security?
$1474 tradersResolved
66%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the Joe Rogan podcast in 2023?
$551 tradersResolved
25%
Will Nic Carter successfully complete a muscle up in 2024.
$233 tradersclosed
62%