Manifold Creator
Jacob
@JacobJacob
Markets by Jacob
What will Sam Altman do by June 1, 2024? (Add answers!)
$26K71 tradersResolved
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How much LessWrong karma will the uploading dialogue with me, davidad, anders sandberg and lisa thiergart get by Nov 3?
$13K17 tradersResolved
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Which Lightcone team member will be responsible for the highest karma dialogue by December 1st?
$10K18 tradersResolved
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Who will win kave and Garrett's bet on critical periods in neural networks?
$5K7 tradersResolved
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How many total traders will have participated in Mr Magnolia's "LessWrong non-drama karma" question, by closing time?
$4K8 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025?
$3K15 tradersResolved
95%
Will Emmett Shear's "private investigator" release a public report before Jan 1, 2024?
$3K8 tradersResolved
1%
How many LessWrong dialogues with >200 karma will there be by April 1st, 2024?
$3K12 tradersResolved
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What will be the total non-drama LessWrong karma for dialogues in October?
$2K4 tradersResolved
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By Jan 7, will kenshin9000 release an LLM-powered chess engine that scores >3000 Elo in an independent replication?
$1K13 tradersResolved
3%
Why did Greg Brockman quit OpenAI?
$84025 tradersResolved
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How many LessWrong Dialogues, using the new feature, with 20+ karma, will be published between Sep 6 and Sep 14?
$8232 tradersResolved
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Which risk categories and concepts will be explicitly tracked by OpenAI's preparedness framework by end of 2024?
$54110 tradersResolved
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Will there be a LessWrong Dialogue (using the few feature) with over 200 karma published by Sep 14?
$4885 tradersResolved
2%
By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
$40210 tradersopen
5%
Why was Greg Brockman's quitting message written almost entirely without capital letters?
$37111 tradersclosed
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By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?
$1485 tradersopen
16%
As of Mon Nov 20, why has the OpenAI board not issue any statement beyond their first public announcement?
$1088 tradersResolved
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Which, if any, GPT-n will outperform AlphaGeometry merely via prompting, by 2030?
$793 tradersopen
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