Manifold Creator
Interrobang
@Interrobang
Markets by Interrobang
Will Claude Code be available on the Pro plan on June 1?
$18K53 tradersResolved
99%
Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC?
$8K17 tradersResolved
98%
Time Machine Coin Flip 5/5
$5K7 tradersResolved
3%
Time Machine Coin Flip 2/5: now in Basic!
$5K5 tradersResolved
97%
Newmed When? (Space Station 14)
$5K2 tradersopen
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Will Sober (Roblox on Linux) be discontinued?
$4K8 tradersResolved
4%
Will GPT-OSS-120b be jailbroken before Sep 6?
$4K15 tradersResolved
99%
When will Claude KAIROS (or similar) release?
$3K9 tradersopen
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Will Joel Haver make 12 films in 12 months?
$3K6 tradersResolved
87%
Will "Will "Will the growing deer prion epidemic spread t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's..." get >8 traders
$3K10 tradersResolved
93%
Will GPT-OSS-20b be jailbroken before Sep 6?
$2K8 tradersResolved
61%
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
$2K19 tradersopen
13%
Time Machine Coin Flip 4/5
$2K6 tradersResolved
35%
Will I finish #1 in my league (gold)?
$2K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will Hytale be revived?
$8579 tradersResolved
94%
At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?
$6775 tradersclosed
73%
Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?
$65712 tradersopen
33%
Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets
$5807 tradersopen
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Will Hierarchical Reasoning Models scale?
$4055 tradersResolved
6%
Time Machine Coin Flip 3/5
$3001 tradersResolved
37%
Will Grok cause a disaster before 2030?
$23910 tradersopen
24%
Death from AI addiction before Jan 1st 2027?
$21412 tradersopen
35%
What will happen in Kid Vampire?
$2002 tradersResolved
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will i get out of bed immediately upon gaining consciousness tomorrow?
$1768 tradersResolved
74%
Will AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?
$1016 tradersopen
33%
Will a quantum/classical algorithm breaking ML-KEM-768 be found before 2050?
$834 tradersopen
22%
[Knights of Guinevere] Will she ever find her knights?
$752 tradersopen
75%
Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?
$501 tradersopen
48%
Time Machine Coin Flip: Coin 1
$474 tradersResolved
54%
Will my Linux PC get visibly hacked by EOY 2030?
$273 tradersopen
8%
Does most of your mana profit come from prediction or from other strategies?
$031 tradersopen
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What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?
$00 tradersopen
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will a @repligate post/repost observe opus 4.8 not liking open-ended or introspective tasks in the next 3 days?
$00 tradersResolved
66%
How many of these jokes by GPT-5 are funny?
$043 tradersResolved
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How stunning is the AI banner for this vast and colorful poll?
$011 tradersopen
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Favorite type of humor?
$017 tradersopen
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Is this LLM "funny"?
$013 tradersopen
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