Manifold Creator

Imuli

@Imuli

Markets by Imuli

Will Whales vs Mnnows take more than 24 hours to resolve after closing?

$9K9 tradersResolved
0%

Will the Kids Online Safety Act be signed into law in 2023?

$8K45 tradersResolved
2%

Will anyone quit Manifold for at least a week due to the drama around "Whales vs. Minnows"?

$7K24 tradersResolved
2%

Will the Online Safety Bill pass in 2023?

$7K37 tradersResolved
97%

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

$4K50 tradersopen
14%

Will the sound effects go away?

$3K21 tradersResolved
2%

Will the Kids Online Safety Act pass the US Senate in the 117th Congress?

$3K10 tradersResolved
1%

Will Icelanders vote to proceed with talks to join the EU in 2023?

$2K15 tradersResolved
2%

Will Quebec leave Canada before 2040?

$2K19 tradersopen
10%

Will Avalanche Energy achieve net energy production by the end of 2025?

$1K9 tradersResolved
2%

Will Catalonia leave Spain before 2040?

$1K24 tradersopen
22%

Will AI ethics and AI safety people stop sniping at each other by July?

$1K7 tradersResolved
5%

Will forms of encryption that prevent Internet services from spying on their users face restrictions in the United States during 2023?

$97813 tradersResolved
4%

Will Hong Kong leave China before 2040?

$7299 tradersopen
4%

Will Twitter's end to end encryption for DMs be shown to have vulnerabilities (or not exist at all)?

$7126 tradersResolved
97%

Will Hachette v. Internet Archive be heard by the Supreme Court?

$71122 tradersopen
20%

Discrete Exponent Chaos Market (83)

$71112 tradersResolved
87%

Will the (now changed) GitHub RSA SSH private key be easily available by the end of April?

$6575 tradersResolved
2%

How many people will make markets concerning "Whales vs Minnows"?

$55518 tradersResolved
67%

Will the STOP CSAM Act be signed into United States law in 2023?

$4805 tradersResolved
4%

Will Google Authenticator add end to end encryption to their new 2FA secret synchronization?

$4086 tradersResolved
13%

Astable Multivibrator: resolves against the state of the market 24 hours ago.

$4047 tradersResolved
45%

Will the initial copyright claim for Zarya Of The Dawn be upheld?

$3718 tradersResolved
33%

Will I decide that there is a better place to live than Iceland?

$36012 tradersResolved
39%

Will malicious firmware be found in the wild signed with keys from the MSI leak?

$2696 tradersResolved
13%

Will the Online Safety Bill still be incompatible with end to end privacy when it leaves committee?

$2659 tradersResolved
94%

Will I muck up my construction of HashEdDSA using Blake3 and Curve25519?

$2496 tradersResolved
9%

Will market spam on Manifold be a problem at the end of the month?

$1857 tradersResolved
25%

Will Sparks of AGI still be concerning in July?

$1306 tradersResolved
84%

Will the UK pressure credit card processors to enforce content censorship on Signal?

$826 tradersResolved
30%

Assuming the 5k market resolves YES, will at least one of the holders of ≥5k NO be an alt?

$583 tradersResolved
44%