Manifold Creator
IC
@IC
Markets by IC
Will US software engineer total compensation be higher at end of 2023?
$11K81 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be a terrorist attack targeting the 2024 Toronto Taylor Swift concerts?
$5K17 tradersResolved
3%
Will I get a job offer in the US before 2024 that would allow me to save at least US$70k/year? [M500 Subsidy]
$4K47 tradersResolved
12%
Will Google bring back Google Glasses before 2026?
$4K54 tradersResolved
4%
Will 4-day workweeks be as common by 2026 as fully remote work is now?
$4K94 tradersResolved
10%
Will a crop disease/fungus/blight significantly decrease North American crop yields before 2026?
$4K20 tradersResolved
11%
Will compensation for software engineers in Canada have risen relative to those in the US at the end of 2023?
$2K22 tradersResolved
3%
Which YC top 5 company will go public first?
$2K6 tradersResolved
—
If Trump’s tariffs on Canada are not reimposed by March 5, how many USD will 1 CAD be worth?
$1K10 tradersResolved
—
Will Iran attack Saudi Arabia before 2026?
$1K15 tradersResolved
1%
How much USD will a Canadian dollar be worth on Nov 1, 2025?
$1K10 tradersResolved
—
When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?
$95118 tradersopen
—
Will there be a public company with at most one human employee before 2030?
$53815 tradersopen
20%
Is Banksy a woman?
$50610 tradersopen
7%
Will Canada allow US dairy during Trump’s term?
$4954 tradersopen
3%
If Manifold is acquired, who will acquire them?
$41615 tradersopen
—
Would boosts be better if we were paying people to trade in a market rather than to just click a button?
$28813 tradersResolved
59%
Will Celtic music become popular before 2026?
$2887 tradersResolved
18%
Will I understand what "subsidizing a market" on Manifold means before the end of May?
$28011 tradersResolved
77%
Which sports league will be first to offer VR viewing for its finals?
$1676 tradersopen
—
What will the population of China be in 2040?
$1254 tradersopen
25%
If the US is nuked by 2050, which city will be nuked first?
$936 tradersopen
—
Will AI be able to illustrate a short story at human level before 2025?
$927 tradersResolved
40%
If Lex Fridman interviews Vladimir Putin in 2023, will it improve Putin’s public image in the West?
$907 tradersResolved
29%
Will average life expectancy in Canada exceed 100 years before 2097?
$593 tradersopen
52%
Which US city will I decide to move to?
$523 tradersResolved
—
If tech company Faire goes public before 2026, will its value 6 months after IPO be at least US$13 billion?
$274 tradersResolved
44%
When will housing be solved?
$163 tradersopen
45%