Manifold Creator
🦔
@Hedgehog
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How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26?
$7K11 tradersResolved
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Will AI Safety via Debate be cited more than 25 times in 2023?
$6K11 tradersResolved
100%
When will there first be an AI system that qualifies as ASL-3?
$5K12 tradersResolved
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When will Anthropic first train an AI system that they claim qualifies as ASL-3?
$5K15 tradersResolved
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How much will Google Trends interest in AI boyfriends change from Jan '24 to Jan '25?
$5K14 tradersResolved
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Will AI Safety via Debate be cited more than 50 times in 2023?
$5K17 tradersResolved
4%
Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$4K21 tradersResolved
96%
Will at least 25 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
$4K16 tradersResolved
6%
Will Meta have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$3K27 tradersResolved
3%
The first Anthropic-trained AI system to qualify as ASL-3 qualifies because of misuse risks rather than autonomy risks
$3K22 tradersResolved
92%
Will a foreign missile strike a civilian target in California before 2036?
$3K9 tradersopen
18%
When will there first be a credible report that an AI system qualifies as ASL-3?
$2K13 tradersResolved
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How many housing units will be built in California by 2025 because of 2022-2023 'builder's remedy' permits?
$2K35 tradersResolved
54%
Will at least 25 top-250 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$1K15 tradersResolved
4%
What will the prevailing sentiment be about Rapamycin as a longevity drug in 2028?
$1K11 tradersopen
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Will Baidu have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$99210 tradersResolved
14%
Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$94712 tradersResolved
9%
Will any major new technical AGI safety efforts be announced in the remainder of 2022?
$9478 tradersResolved
2%
How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?
$6836 tradersopen
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Will at least 15 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
$66317 tradersResolved
31%
Will at least 25 top-100 universities have a faculty-led technical AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?
$64313 tradersResolved
6%
Where will COLM 2025 (the AI conference) be?
$5552 tradersResolved
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Will Meta have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
$46614 tradersResolved
22%
Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
$29610 tradersResolved
29%
If I start reading Gilead, will I finish it?
$1959 tradersResolved
73%
Will Baidu have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?
$754 tradersResolved
21%
How much will Google Trends interest in AI alignment change from Jan '22 to Jan '24?
$251 tradersResolved
34%
When did Claude Opus 4 training finish?
$011 tradersResolved
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