Manifold Creator
Harrison Lucas
@HarrisonLucas
Markets by Harrison Lucas
SBF convicted of a felony before 2026
$217K438 tradersResolved
100%
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao incarcerated before 2026
$47K67 tradersResolved
99%
Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026
$46K127 tradersResolved
1%
Will Israel use nuclear weapons against an adversary before 2026?
$20K56 tradersResolved
1%
AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
$17K80 tradersopen
25%
President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035
$17K96 tradersopen
4%
10-year US treasuries yield >10% any time before 2026
$15K20 tradersResolved
1%
US Inflation over 5% 2023-2025
$13K21 tradersResolved
1%
Credit Suisse insolvent or bankrupt before 2025
$12K41 tradersResolved
14%
King Charles intervenes in UK government before 2024
$12K18 tradersResolved
0%
Brent crude price swings by +/- 50% Oct2022–Oct2023.
$11K9 tradersResolved
0%
Will more than 100 Tesla semis be on the road before July 2023?
$10K36 tradersResolved
1%
Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035
$9K55 tradersopen
21%
Drone attack on Taiwan's critical infrastructure before December 31, 2025
$9K34 tradersResolved
1%
Bitcoin difficulty drops by 30% before October 2023
$7K17 tradersResolved
1%
ChatGPT allows advertisers to influence results or place ads before Jan 2026
$7K33 tradersResolved
3%
Eliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
$7K69 tradersopen
41%
SBF does an interview with Effective Ethical World Domination before July 2024
$7K15 tradersResolved
2%
Tesla Inc's market capitalization drops below US$300 billion on NASDAQ before 2024 or TSLA bankrupt.
$7K18 tradersResolved
1%
A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.
$6K50 tradersopen
19%
LNG import/export terminal destroyed for any reason before 2026.
$5K18 tradersResolved
9%
Taylor Swift runs for president of the USA before 2037
$5K25 tradersopen
7%
Nuclear power production increases in USA 2023-2033
$5K44 tradersopen
78%
S&P 500 closes below 3200 in 2022
$4K12 tradersResolved
2%
"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.
$4K19 tradersopen
9%
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
$4K32 tradersopen
11%
US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026
$3K17 tradersclosed
8%
Satoshi Nakamoto's account transfers BTC before 2025.
$3K26 tradersResolved
2%
Effective Ethical World Domination gets above 10k hits by March 31st
$3K56 tradersResolved
15%
Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.
$3K41 tradersResolved
62%
Billionaire US citizen convicted of felony before 2026
$2K11 tradersResolved
99%
Netflix average paying users grows less than 3% from 2022-2023
$2K17 tradersResolved
5%
Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
$2K12 tradersopen
14%
Manifold makes descriptions readable again
$2K8 tradersResolved
99%
US President TV orgasm market > 7% for more than 72 hours before 2030
$2K9 tradersResolved
99%
Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030
$2K12 tradersopen
15%
Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.
$2K19 tradersopen
76%
Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?
$2K18 tradersopen
52%
US municipality or state taxes sugary drinks as much or more than hard liquor before 2034.
$2K6 tradersopen
15%
Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.
$1K23 tradersopen
67%