Manifold Creator
Hans Peter
@HansPeter
Markets by Hans Peter
Will GPT-5 be released on 6th of June?
$66K102 tradersResolved
1%
Will Gpt-4.5 be released on July 25th? [Anything significantly better than gpt-4o counts.]
$46K68 tradersResolved
1%
Will Starship refuelling be solved by end of 2025?
$11K41 tradersResolved
1%
Will gpt-4o-mini be released today?
$10K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
$7K40 tradersResolved
9%
OpenAI DevDay 2024 Prop Bets
$7K19 tradersResolved
—
What will be released for public use first? GPT-5 (yes) or Llama-3 405b (no)?
$5K44 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be at least 50 missions to the moon per year by 2035?
$3K20 tradersopen
22%
By Oct 31, 2025, which career option will I commit to?
$7826 tradersResolved
—
Will I still be using Cursor (AI-IDE) as daily driver in 6 months?
$66812 tradersResolved
64%
Will Reflect Orbital send two satellites into space by 2030?
$37011 tradersopen
66%
Will SWE-agent support groq API by end of June 2024
$2825 tradersResolved
20%
Will we have llama3-70b 32k context window before July 2024?
$2398 tradersResolved
81%
Will longshot space deliver 100t to LEO until 2050?
$2206 tradersopen
15%
Will Reflect Orbital send 60 satellites into space by 2030?
$2097 tradersopen
12%
Will search.chatgpt.com be released in 2024 and a direct competitor to Google and Bing?
$17713 tradersResolved
52%
IF I accept a local on-site/hybrid role: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
$1472 tradersclosed
70%
IF I pursue my own products/projects as the primary occupation: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
$1104 tradersResolved
74%
IF I stay at my current employer: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
$453 tradersResolved
36%
IF I accept a remote-first role: will 12-month satisfaction be ≥7/10?
$252 tradersResolved
61%