Manifold Creator
Hamish Todd
@HamishTodd
Markets by Hamish Todd
Will Bluesky have 50 million users by September 2025? (~triple what it is mid-November)
$75K129 tradersResolved
1%
Conditional upon the Democratic party replacing Joe Biden as nominee, will they win the election?
$21K114 tradersResolved
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Will global average temperatures decrease in the next 3 months?
$2K5 tradersResolved
60%
What'll be the conclusions of a large study into the ease of learning quantum mechanics with different interpretations?
$2K4 tradersopen
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In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?
$2K22 tradersResolved
28%
Will a major/Triple-A game engine support "geometric algebra" operations out-of-the-box by January 2026?
$1K7 tradersResolved
45%
Of the purported atmospheric biosignatures that the James Webb Space Telescope will find amongst exoplanets over the next ~1 year, which one will NASA say is the most promising?
$6454 tradersResolved
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Assuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
$21312 tradersopen
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I want to set up a prediction market where people guess the outcome of some as-yet-unpublished study related to the question "does social media have a significant negative impact on mental health?". What will I decide is the question my prediction market should ask?
$163 tradersResolved
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