Manifold Creator
Nathan Metzger
@Haiku
Markets by Nathan Metzger
AI Warning Signs: Will a tool that can easily generate generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?
$3K18 tradersopen
90%
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
$3K21 tradersopen
78%
AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system make $50M in realized profits from traditional investments and trades?
$2K10 tradersopen
36%
AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
$7629 tradersopen
60%
AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
$64110 tradersopen
59%
Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?
$38115 tradersopen
55%