Manifold Creator
Hadean
@Hadean
Markets by Hadean
Is volcanism caused by dark matter?
$4K16 tradersopen
9%
Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030?
$2K20 tradersopen
11%
Will there be evidence of insider trading by any Trump administration official for the events of April 9th.
$2K32 tradersopen
57%
Will there be a ≥4.4 magnitude non-earthquake seismic event by April 1?
$1K7 tradersResolved
2%
How many popes until AGI?
$1K27 tradersopen
—
Will a new National Park be established during Biden's current term?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will OPEC functionally dissolve by 2028?
$82013 tradersopen
36%
Will scientists drill into the mantle by 2031?
$79328 tradersopen
36%
Will Robert Robbins be president of the University of Arizona on September 1, 2024?
$70410 tradersResolved
99%
Is the Silurian hypothesis true?
$6046 tradersopen
3%
Will the tallest building in the USA be located in Oklahoma City in 2032?
$5948 tradersopen
30%
Will the the planetary K index reach 9 by May 12?
$5568 tradersResolved
96%
Will any country attempt to weaponize an asteroid by 2075?
$55010 tradersopen
36%
Claude outages caused by the U.S. Government?
$5385 tradersopen
14%
Will my Newark flights be delayed/cancelled?
$47313 tradersResolved
23%
Will the "Machinocene" be designated as a new geological epoch by 2060?
$4394 tradersopen
13%
Will there be greater than 50 million Amish in the United States by 2200?
$3965 tradersopen
31%
Will there be a so-called "nuclear Saudi Arabia" by 2050?
$2949 tradersopen
21%
When will the first at-fault Waymo death occur?
$2947 tradersopen
—
Is the Ivory-billed woodpecker extinct?
$2597 tradersopen
83%
Will an electric vehicle have a range of >1000 miles by 2029?
$2527 tradersopen
25%
Will >50% of the United States population identify as vegan by 2080?
$2366 tradersopen
36%
Was the Tunguska event caused by a Verneshot?
$2257 tradersopen
17%
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
$22210 tradersopen
39%
Will I be able to buy a lab-grown turkey by Thanksgiving 2029?
$21312 tradersopen
37%
Conditional on AGI, will the S&P500 close above 1 million by 2032?
$2116 tradersopen
14%
Will the US abolish the nickel by 2040?
$2086 tradersopen
35%
End Kidney Deaths Act passed by 2027?
$1973 tradersopen
12%
Will Glacier National Park have glaciers in 2032?
$1837 tradersopen
86%
Will any NEO home robots be delivered by 2026?
$17011 tradersopen
48%
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
$16810 tradersopen
65%
Will any object reach level 2 on the Torino scale by Dec. 31, 2024?
$1604 tradersResolved
11%
Will scientists find a continuous, million-year ice core in Antarctica by 2028?
$1337 tradersopen
77%
Will Nigeria leave OPEC by the end of 2024?
$1093 tradersResolved
21%
Is the Grand Canyon young (or old)?
$979 tradersopen
33%
Will nuclear ballistic missile submarines become obsolete by 2100?
$802 tradersopen
60%
Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?
$747 tradersopen
31%
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
$674 tradersopen
71%
Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?
$603 tradersopen
48%
Will climate change strengthen the North American Monsoon?
$502 tradersopen
77%