Manifold Creator
Grothendieck Fla
@Grothenfla
Markets by Grothendieck Fla
Iran-Israel war before 2028?
$41K202 tradersResolved
95%
Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
$7K24 tradersopen
13%
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
$5K23 tradersopen
42%
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei dead before August 2025?
$5K50 tradersResolved
1%
Winds of Winter released before 2027?
$4K32 tradersopen
4%
Will an AI get gold at the IMO? (no time restrain)
$4K36 tradersResolved
98%
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
$3K22 tradersopen
57%
Will Luffy find the One Piece before 2030?
$1K17 tradersopen
72%
Who will pass to Copa del Rey finals, Real Madrid or Real Sociedad?
$9774 tradersResolved
—
Was the shooter a Trump supporter?
$95118 tradersResolved
7%
Will Flamengo win a relevant title 2025?
$9127 tradersResolved
99%
Donald Trump dies before 2036?
$84423 tradersopen
87%
Will Brazil win the World Cup Qualifiers match against Argentina today?
$7852 tradersResolved
—
Will Donald Trump suggest that Elon Musk is mentally disabled by the end of the year?
$63218 tradersResolved
4%
Will a nuclear bomb be used against Iran before 2030?
$44914 tradersopen
10%
Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?
$40513 tradersResolved
40%
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
$38715 tradersopen
51%
Will Trump attack Cuba by the end of his term?
$36113 tradersopen
81%
Will Fermat's last theorem proof be completely formalized in Lean in 2026?
$35915 tradersopen
8%
Trump on good terms with JD Vance at end of term?
$30718 tradersopen
57%
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before 2030?
$1917 tradersopen
47%
Will Trump interfere in Brazil's 2026 elections?
$1495 tradersopen
75%
Real Madrid win against Alavés?
$1153 tradersResolved
82%
Will Flamengo win a big title in 2026?
$303 tradersopen
55%