Manifold Creator
Gman
@Gmanishere
Markets by Gman
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nate Soares appear on the 80,000 Hours Podcast before 31 December 2025?
$5K28 tradersResolved
4%
Will Anthropic lose the Authors’ Copyright Class Action Lawsuit by end of 2026?
$5K15 tradersResolved
4%
Will Aella's (X) account be public at the end of June 2025?
$5K30 tradersResolved
99%
Front Cover (US) of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' changes before release?
$4K34 tradersResolved
1%
Will more than 80% of the participants doing Inkhaven successfully complete it?
$3K24 tradersResolved
94%
Will JD Vance mention ‘If anyone builds it everyone dies’ by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky before 2026?
$2K33 tradersResolved
3%
Will Bentham’s Bulldog write a follow-up post to “Don’t Eat Honey” before July 31, 2025?
$2K5 tradersResolved
99%
Will any country legally recognise human–AI romantic partnerships by the end of 2027?
$74421 tradersopen
11%
Will the AI 2027 video by 80,000 Hours have 3 million views by EOD 31st July?
$5707 tradersResolved
16%
Will we get an update from Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025?
$52512 tradersResolved
44%
Will I believe in Christianity before the end of summer 2025?
$46413 tradersResolved
10%
Will there be a major bioattack by EOY 2025 where an LLM provided relevant information to the attacker(s)?
$42413 tradersResolved
4%
Will AlphaEvolve reduce Gemini training time by at least 5% by the end of 2025?
$33510 tradersResolved
8%
Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?
$2334 tradersclosed
10%
Will AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?
$1994 tradersopen
14%
Will OpenAI pay damages exceeding $1 million in a tort liability case by 2028?
$1776 tradersopen
74%
Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?
$1488 tradersopen
57%
Will a major US survey by end of 2026 show that >1% of respondents believe AI systems are conscious?
$1246 tradersResolved
83%
Will the Responsible Innovation and Safe Expertise (RISE) Act of 2025 become law in the United States before 1 Jan 2027?
$903 tradersopen
22%
Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?
$804 tradersopen
42%
Will I think pre-training is dead by the end of 2026?
$514 tradersopen
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Will we see a live action “Marvel vs DC” movie within the next 5 years
$111 tradersResolved
45%