Manifold Creator
Gigacasting
@Gigacasting
Markets by Gigacasting
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2023?
$359K1,568 tradersResolved
1%
Will SBF plead guilty?
$333K735 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be 20 bank failures?
$301K64 tradersResolved
2%
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
$164K372 tradersResolved
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Will Trump tweet before a nuclear detonation occurs?
$150K66 tradersResolved
99%
Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?
$147K199 tradersResolved
98%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the midterms?
$136K316 tradersResolved
1%
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
$110K339 tradersResolved
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Will SBF be sentenced to 20+ Years?
$109K84 tradersResolved
100%
Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?
$105K276 tradersopen
17%
Will SBF take a plea deal?
$87K320 tradersResolved
0%
Will the Republican nominee be either Trump or DeSantis?
$78K89 tradersResolved
99%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated while Biden is President?
$75K193 tradersResolved
2%
GPT-5 by 2025?
$75K195 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?
$70K168 tradersResolved
1%
Is GPT-4 a mixture of experts?
$67K131 tradersResolved
98%
Will USDC halt withdrawals?
$63K13 tradersResolved
0%
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
$62K165 tradersResolved
99%
Will Trump do time?
$61K139 tradersResolved
1%
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2032?
$61K71 tradersResolved
99%
AI 2023 Person of the Year
$59K124 tradersResolved
0%
Will Bitcoin reach $14k before it reaches $40k?
$57K27 tradersResolved
0%
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
$55K98 tradersResolved
99%
Will Russia nuke Ukraine?
$54K284 tradersopen
6%
Will OpenAI have >$200 million in revenue in 2023?
$53K93 tradersResolved
100%
Will SBF plead guilty before July 1?
$52K25 tradersResolved
0%
Will Do Kwon be convicted of a crime by 2025?
$52K31 tradersResolved
100%
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Thanksgiving?
$52K94 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be more YES positions than NO positions?
$50K72 tradersResolved
100%
Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?
$49K94 tradersopen
16%
Will Trump’s first tweet mention Truth Social?
$49K75 tradersResolved
0%
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
$48K118 tradersResolved
7%
Will there be more YES positions than NO positions? (Over M$1000)
$47K66 tradersResolved
11%
Will Biden complete his term?
$46K157 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?
$45K116 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?
$45K114 tradersResolved
1%
SBF Trial in 2023
$44K13 tradersResolved
100%
Will Lex Fridman interview Elon by 2024?
$44K38 tradersResolved
100%
Will Biden be President for 8 years?
$43K92 tradersResolved
3%
Will Bitcoin reach $12k before it reaches $30k?
$42K27 tradersResolved
0%