Manifold Creator
Gavriel
@GavrielK
Markets by Gavriel
Will a nonprofit receive funding through charity equity/impact certificates by the end of 2023?
$24K13 tradersResolved
100%
Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)?
$15K121 tradersResolved
96%
Will Nate Silver's new book make a detailed reference to Manifold?
$7K18 tradersResolved
95%
Will I move out of Colorado in 2023?
$4K25 tradersResolved
94%
Will I get food poisoning at Mexifold?
$3K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will California bill SB-1308, regulating the ozone emission of air cleaners, become law?
$3K13 tradersResolved
14%
Will my Manifest talk get a minyan (10 or more people)?
$3K10 tradersResolved
99%
When will lab-grown meat become commercially available in the US?
$3K22 tradersResolved
—
Will Vaxart’s oral COVID vaccine candidate show at least 75% efficacy in a human challenge trial?
$3K12 tradersResolved
6%
Will my dating doc be instrumental in my finding someone to date seriously?
$3K24 tradersopen
9%
Will France see large-scale protests (eg a turnout of 10,000 in Paris) due to winter energy prices and/or shortages?
$3K39 tradersResolved
14%
Will I start a blog this month?
$2K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?
$2K33 tradersclosed
14%
Will the Manifest minimum viable Yom Kippur service get a minyan (10 or more people)?
$2K7 tradersResolved
2%
By the end of 2029 will there be a UV light company worth $1 billion?
$1K27 tradersopen
23%
Where will I be living at the end of 2023?
$1K10 tradersResolved
—
Will Project NextGen be cut as part of a debt ceiling agreement?
$1K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will new challenge studies for at least two different SARS-CoV-2 strains be in progress by the end of 2023?
$81410 tradersResolved
21%
[Bounty] Will anyone suggest an idea for a forecasting tournament that 1Day Sooner uses within the next three months?
$7419 tradersResolved
19%
If my trajectory or any personality traits change as a result of using Manifold, will I consider it to be a positive change in a year (Oct 2023)?
$61614 tradersResolved
87%
Will I publish a dating doc within a month?
$49814 tradersResolved
13%
Will 1Day Sooner submit an entry to Open Phil's cause exploration contest by the deadline?
$4058 tradersResolved
90%
Will Congressional hearings on the FTX collapse call EAs to testify?
$39120 tradersResolved
46%
Who at Mexifold introduced me to the most interesting idea/consideration?
$39111 tradersResolved
—
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?
$36218 tradersopen
72%
Will the upcoming Colorado Senate race (Bennet vs. O’Dea) be closer than the last one (Gardner vs. Hickenlooper)?
$29811 tradersResolved
81%
How long will it take 1Day Sooner to hire someone to direct its hep C program? (in days)
$28710 tradersResolved
82%
Will I test positive for COVID in 2022?
$26210 tradersResolved
74%
What will be the gender ratio at the Manifold meetup tonight?
$25715 tradersResolved
25%
Will my report on pull funding for indoor air quality technology advocate for a ~$500mil fund?
$2388 tradersResolved
25%
Will all the Petrov Day game players understand the rules and strategy by the end of the game?
$2378 tradersResolved
28%
Who will win the Republican primary for the MD-06 House election?
$2265 tradersResolved
—
Will the 1Day Sooner Safe Air Research Alliance receive at least one grant or grant commitment by the end of Q1 2024?
$1877 tradersResolved
14%
Will the 1Day Sooner Safe Air Research Alliance have at least 1 tech installation/study in progress by the end of 2024?
$1615 tradersclosed
21%
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?
$11211 tradersopen
53%
Has John Williams scored less than 50 movies?
$752 tradersResolved
50%
Have I ever had Zika or dengue?
$602 tradersResolved
17%
During Mexifold, will someone change my mind on a strongly-held opinion/belief?
$552 tradersResolved
30%
If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?
$344 tradersopen
46%
Will the 1Day Sooner Safe Air Research Alliance be active in 2025?
$251 tradersclosed
69%