Manifold Creator
Gracious
@GG
Markets by Gracious
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
$43K108 tradersopen
18%
Will ChatGPT launch an "adult mode" before 1 April 2026?
$27K107 tradersResolved
1%
Will Democrats keep the presidency AND have a net gain in Congress?
$22K47 tradersResolved
19%
Assault weapons ban before 2025
$22K74 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an "Election 2024" Epic Rap Battle of History?
$11K22 tradersResolved
98%
Will Trump ban gun sales to transgender people?
$8K49 tradersopen
20%
Will Democrats control both the House and Senate after the 2024 elections?
$8K33 tradersResolved
5%
Will OpenAI sanction porn on at least one of its models before 2025?
$6K64 tradersResolved
9%
Half-Life 3 release, what year?
$5K36 tradersopen
34%
Will Pokémon S/V run a consistent 30fps by the end of the year?
$4K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will I keep my promise to donate $1100 to charity if Trump wins?
$4K21 tradersResolved
89%
Will Brandon Herrera be the next ATF Director?
$3K7 tradersResolved
13%
How many women will I cold approach before I go on a date?
$3K52 tradersResolved
18%
Will a new Tobey Maguire "Ramiverse" Spider Man movie be announced?
$3K17 tradersResolved
2%
Biggest AI romance app more users than biggest human romance app on July 1, 2028?
$3K17 tradersopen
17%
Will Trump sign a concealed-carry reciprocity bill?
$2K8 tradersopen
62%
What Pokémon games will be announced in February?
$2K15 tradersResolved
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Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?
$2K16 tradersopen
54%
When the Writers Guild strike ends, will Adam Conover be happy with the result?
$2K26 tradersResolved
97%
When will Grand Theft Auto 6 be released? (months since January 2023)
$2K15 tradersopen
34%
Will Pranav Gade misresolve their market on whether they will misresolve their "This market will resolve to yes." market
$1K10 tradersResolved
3%
How much will a round of 9mm Luger cost on November 1st?
$1K5 tradersResolved
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Will Trump, earnestly or in jest, claim to be pregnant before November 2024?
$1K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2028 presidential election?
$91217 tradersopen
12%
Will Brandon Herrera post a video re-enacting the Trump shooting?
$5653 tradersResolved
64%
Will BLMChicago apologize for the pro-Hamas meme?
$56520 tradersResolved
15%
What will be true of ChatGPT's porn policy in December?
$51715 tradersResolved
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Will GPT 4 write a 60,000 word book from a single prompt?
$46916 tradersResolved
30%
Will the FBI publish a breakdown of murder suspects by race for 2022 before 2024?
$26310 tradersResolved
72%
Last user to bet on this market
$1738 tradersResolved
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Will the Kansas City Chiefs leave Kansas City before 2027?
$624 tradersopen
8%
Will Beretta release a gun in 10mm Auto in 2023 or 2024?
$382 tradersResolved
29%
Will Americans be able to buy short-barreled "pistol brace" guns again?
$302 tradersResolved
58%
Test market, don't bet.
$00 tradersResolved
50%
How much would you pay for infinite banana?
$018 tradersResolved
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Recommend a reddit alternative that's not a hive mind
$00 tradersResolved
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Which of these is a "Leopard Eating Faces" situation?
$024 tradersResolved
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Would you illegally immigrate to Wakanda for a job paying 2.5 times your current wage?
$019 tradersopen
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Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?
$047 tradersopen
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Would Manifold be better with fewer markets?
$040 tradersResolved
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