Manifold Creator
Fabien
@Fabien
Markets by Fabien
Will I be an Anthropic employee on May 1st, 2025?
$1K22 tradersResolved
97%
[Redwood Research] Will the main AI control post be posted by the end of Jan
$9174 tradersResolved
98%
Will a major AI lab claim to use activation steering in its main chat assistant by EOY 2025?
$58215 tradersResolved
25%
Will early transformative AIs primarily use text?
$26412 tradersopen
54%
Will I think that scheming benchmarks are more promising than game theory benchmarks (for defining trusted) in 1y?
$1174 tradersResolved
63%
Will the first AI to achieve 90% accuracy at interview APPS problems primarily use text?
$662 tradersResolved
83%
In 2024, will the majority of Redwood researchers think it would have been better if they had left Redwood in 2023?
$475 tradersResolved
26%
Will the first AI to pass a 2-hour adversarial Turing test primarily use text?
$445 tradersopen
65%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one month?
$41 tradersResolved
23%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in one week?
$00 tradersResolved
20%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for setting Z in one week?
$00 tradersResolved
60%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Regex setting in one month?
$00 tradersResolved
40%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in four weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
60%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?
$00 tradersResolved
5%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function precondition correctness in one month?
$00 tradersResolved
5%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Diamond in the Vault (Toy/Non-Toy) in two weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of Function Correctness v2.0(+) in two weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
50%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Open+Read (and later Open+Write?) in two weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
60%
Will we achieve some reasonable version of setting Y in three days?
$00 tradersResolved
70%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in two weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
15%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Nested Functions in two weeks?
$00 tradersResolved
20%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Function Correctness v2.0 in one week?
$00 tradersResolved
5%
Will we achieve pretty clear evidence of high goodness for Direct Quotes in one month?
$00 tradersResolved
80%