Manifold Creator
Evan
@EvanDaniel
Markets by Evan
Will Trump publicly disparage Musk within a year of the election?
$1.2M1,529 tradersResolved
99%
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
$253K101 tradersopen
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By when will New Glenn flight 2 launch?
$245K47 tradersResolved
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By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
$238K50 tradersResolved
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Will Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize iff there is a ceasefire in Ukraine before 2026? (or not if there isn't)
$176K299 tradersResolved
99%
By when will the next Falcon 9 / Heavy launch be? (Return to flight)
$119K30 tradersResolved
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Which milestones will Starliner achieve?
$102K43 tradersResolved
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Strikes on Iranian regime by 2026-01-16?
$96K324 tradersResolved
1%
Bitcoin ETF (2023) x New all-time high (2024)? [M1875 Subsidy]
$94K41 tradersResolved
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Will any lead-apatite superconductor with Tc > 30K be found before 2025?
$92K70 tradersResolved
0%
By when will Starliner-1 launch?
$75K18 tradersopen
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Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?
$70K26 tradersResolved
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Will Maduro remain president of Venezuela through 2026?
$68K99 tradersopen
1%
Nuclear War 2025: How many of the linked markets resolve Yes?
$57K14 tradersResolved
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Close states: How many of 7 will vote Dem in 2024? AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI
$53K129 tradersResolved
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Will a foreign military strike Iran before Jan 16th [NO], and will the regime fall this year?
$46K96 tradersopen
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Will there be more mana purchased in March 2026 than in December 2025?
$45K76 tradersResolved
5%
Does a Trump presidential victory imply Joe Biden will pardon Hunter?
$44K74 tradersResolved
99%
What vehicle will Suni and Butch leave the ISS on?
$44K51 tradersResolved
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Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
$39K68 tradersResolved
1%
How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)
$38K9 tradersResolved
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Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
$30K19 tradersResolved
1%
Will Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
$30K113 tradersopen
95%
Will inflation in Argentina be less than 30% for 2024?
$28K119 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?
$28K64 tradersResolved
1%
How will presidential polls (538) shift in the week after the first debate?
$27K46 tradersResolved
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Will inflation in Argentina for 2024 be...
$27K31 tradersResolved
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Will New Glenn 3 fly on a reused first stage?
$25K16 tradersResolved
99%
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
$24K14 tradersopen
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What will the S&P 500 returns be from 2024-11-01 to 2025-05-01 close?
$24K17 tradersResolved
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How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
$23K11 tradersopen
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By when will Starliner undock from the ISS?
$23K26 tradersResolved
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How many confirmed Mpox deaths will there be by the end of 2024?
$22K22 tradersResolved
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Will the top chatbot be covered by, and compliant with, SB 1047 as of 2026-02-01?
$22K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
$22K71 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Houthis sink a commercial ship before 2024-07-01?
$20K71 tradersResolved
100%
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
$19K36 tradersResolved
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Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by 2025-01-01?
$18K23 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Lord Almighty drive Biden from the race?
$18K52 tradersResolved
1%
Which party will win the 2026 Nebraska Senate race?
$18K17 tradersopen
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