Manifold Creator
Ernie
@Ernie
Markets by Ernie
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Oct 2023?
$251K423 tradersResolved
100%
What will Sam Altman be doing on February 1, 2024?
$213K401 tradersResolved
—
NYT clearly suggests Trump attack May have been staged by mid 2025
$171K40 tradersResolved
1%
Midjourney v6 comes out in 2023
$161K13 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Sam Bankman-Fried Trial last into 2024? [dup of another]
$147K147 tradersResolved
100%
Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?
$147K186 tradersopen
—
Will the LK-99 room temp superconductivity pre-print replicate in 2023
$142K213 tradersResolved
2%
Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town
$122K48 tradersopen
—
Will the LK-99 room temp, superconductivity pre-print replicate in August
$120K139 tradersResolved
0%
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
$117K329 tradersResolved
99%
The Democratic candidate wins which states? Plus 36 other weird election markets. Tons of mana, 12k liquidity
$99K146 tradersResolved
—
Will the main LK-99 market reach 6k traders in 2023
$94K60 tradersResolved
100%
Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?
$85K175 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be Harvard University's next permanent president?
$84K130 tradersResolved
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Feature where manifold market creators can view their own markets along with mana amount earned from volume, by eoy 2024
$78K12 tradersResolved
2%
Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market
$77K160 tradersopen
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A physics lab will have received a package of the LK-99 material sent from the researchers by the end of August
$77K125 tradersResolved
99%
Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 15 days from Oct 2 - Oct 20?
$72K52 tradersResolved
100%
Who will win the 2024 Chess World Championship?
$72K151 tradersResolved
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Gukesh vs Ding - Rosen score - what will happen? Weird promotions, pawn cube, castle mate? Code on github! Adding new!
$68K110 tradersResolved
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Is iris_igb actually Seo Sanghyeon
$67K11 tradersResolved
0%
What traits will Harvard's next permanent president have? MegaMarket (101 traits to bet yes/no on!)
$64K159 tradersResolved
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(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?
$62K64 tradersopen
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Will I get a browser extension where I can select text and click a button to make an image automatically by mid 2024?
$61K32 tradersResolved
87%
Will Manifold market creators and maintainers have the ability to manage their markets well, by mid 2025?
$60K20 tradersResolved
2%
Who will still be working with OpenAI on January 31, 2024? [independent, YES/NO on each]
$59K33 tradersResolved
—
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2024?
$53K189 tradersResolved
1%
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot before 2026
$52K69 tradersResolved
1%
Will Biden sign an executive order primarily focused on AI through Nov 2023?
$50K99 tradersResolved
100%
Will the main LK-99 market reach 3k traders in 2023
$50K53 tradersResolved
100%
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in Q1 2024? (Closes Friday Mar 29 above 5246.813)
$50K81 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI have $2 billion annual revenue in 2025?
$50K24 tradersResolved
99%
Will I be able to use interruptible gpt-4o by end of August 2024
$48K45 tradersResolved
5%
Who will still be working at OpenAI on December 1, 2023? [independent, YES/NO on each]
$48K72 tradersResolved
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Will the 2023 UAW Strike last at least 60 days (Nov 13)
$47K111 tradersResolved
96%
Will the main LK99 market ever reach 13% EOY 2023
$42K55 tradersResolved
95%
Will someone return from Mars before 2050
$41K54 tradersopen
41%
Predict top 8 FIDE Chess rankings at the start of 2024 - almost done, come vote on next version!
$40K40 tradersResolved
—
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 10% in one day in November 2023?
$40K38 tradersResolved
0%
Will the main LK-99 market reach 10k traders in 2023
$37K45 tradersResolved
0%