Manifold Creator
Enopoletus Harding
@EnopoletusHarding
Markets by Enopoletus Harding
Will Iran attack US military sites before July 1, 2025?
$39K154 tradersResolved
5%
Will Harris get over 75% of the vote on Manifold?
$21K38 tradersResolved
99%
Will Biden get over 66% of the vote on Manifold?
$18K27 tradersResolved
98%
Will Joe Biden be dead as of December 31, 2025?
$18K41 tradersResolved
1%
Will pro-HTS rebels be in Damascus province at the end of the year?
$11K21 tradersResolved
98%
Will the US recognize Somaliland before 2028?
$10K18 tradersopen
65%
Will the ten year treasury yield on December 16, 2025 be below 4%?
$10K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will the ten year treasury yield on October 28, 2025 be below that on August 18, 2025?
$9K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will Melania run in 2028?
$9K22 tradersclosed
2%
What is Manifold's favorite large Mediterranean island?
$7K11 tradersResolved
—
Will any of the following be unbanned from Twitter within the next two years: Milo, Ricky Vaughn, TEN_GOP
$7K42 tradersResolved
99%
Will I have more than 120 Substack subscribers by the end of the year?
$7K5 tradersResolved
2%
Who will win the Manifold 2016 presidential primary?
$6K23 tradersResolved
—
Will President Yoon finish his term in office?
$6K41 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Labour Party win more than 50% of the popular vote in the next UK election?
$6K34 tradersResolved
13%
What is Manifold's most popular sleeping position?
$6K16 tradersResolved
—
Will so much as a single banned poster start a market here on whether their appeal to Scott was worth their time?
$4K35 tradersResolved
11%
Will Biden's approval rating be above 40% on FiveThirtyEight as of August 1 2024?
$4K44 tradersResolved
18%
What will my chess elo rating be at the end of the year?
$4K26 tradersResolved
—
Will the US Industrial Production index in December 2025 be higher than in September 2018?
$4K9 tradersResolved
7%
Will I learn a substantial amount of Spanish by the end of 2025?
$4K13 tradersResolved
7%
Will Elon Musk serve time in prison at any point in 2024?
$4K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will numerical markets be brought back?
$4K14 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?
$3K18 tradersopen
21%
Will South Korea have a lunar orbiter in space by the end of the year?
$3K7 tradersResolved
98%
Will I learn any notable amount of Italian this year?
$3K11 tradersResolved
6%
What will be the margin in the Florida Senate race in 2026?
$3K4 tradersopen
—
Will Cherson be under the control of Russian forces as of March 31, 2022?
$3K18 tradersResolved
94%
Will Trump have a higher approval rating than 40% as of February 20, 2025?
$3K35 tradersResolved
85%
How many House seats will the GOP lose in 2026?
$3K16 tradersopen
—
Will Russia surpass Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) by 2035?
$3K15 tradersopen
16%
Will Manifold add loans (or a similar feature to incentivize long-term markets) back?
$2K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
$2K23 tradersopen
78%
Will my war on backpacks succeed?
$2K42 tradersopen
5%
Will the S&P 500 be higher on June 1, 2022 than today?
$2K16 tradersResolved
98%
Will I be poisoned in any serious way?
$2K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will I learn the Persian alphabet by the end of August 2025?
$2K28 tradersResolved
99%
When will Ibrahim Traore fall from power?
$2K6 tradersopen
—
Will we ever get the free M$500?
$2K18 tradersResolved
100%
Will I see a groundhog in March?
$2K13 tradersResolved
4%