Manifold Creator
Emanuel R
@EmanuelR
Markets by Emanuel R
Will Argentina be upgraded to Emerging Market status by MSCI before July 2025?
$9K18 tradersResolved
3%
Will Argentina relax foreign exchange controls before 2025?
$7K24 tradersResolved
1%
Where will the 2025 ICPC World Finals be held?
$2K2 tradersResolved
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How many problems will be solved by the winning solution in the Kaggle AI/MO competition?
$2K12 tradersResolved
—
Will Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) be used to win a prize in a Kaggle competition before 2025?
$2K24 tradersResolved
8%
Will lab grown human kidneys be created before 2040?
$1K18 tradersopen
55%
Will nemotron-4-340b rank higher than GPT-4-0125-preview on LMSYS leaderboard at any point before 07/15/2024?
$1K14 tradersResolved
5%
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
$7754 tradersopen
72%
Stargate Argentina built before 2028?
$7675 tradersopen
36%
How many parameters does GPT4o have?
$5135 tradersopen
—
Will AI create the first AGI?
$3226 tradersopen
43%
Will a pure nuclear fusion bomb be developed before 2100?
$3186 tradersopen
12%
Will a shadow biosphere be discovered on Earth before 2050
$1845 tradersopen
11%
Will the paper "Subtle adversarial image manipulations influence both human and machine perceptions" replicate in 2024?
$635 tradersResolved
56%
Will octaazacubane (N8) be synthesized before 2028?
$151 tradersopen
51%