Manifold Creator

Edvard

@Edvard

Markets by Edvard

Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24?

$2K40 tradersResolved
1%

Will Orban claim, within one week after the elections on 12 April, that there was massive election fraud?

$2K45 tradersResolved
4%

Will Pete Hegseth be fired before 10 May, 2026?

$2K27 tradersResolved
1%

Will Eric Swalwell end his bid for California governor before 21 April, 2026?

$2K15 tradersResolved
99%

Will a European country start participating in the war with Iran before May 1?

$1K24 tradersResolved
1%

Number of yellow cards in Paris Arsenal Champions League finale.

$1K7 tradersResolved

Will Solana trade above $100 by the end of May 2026?

$97911 tradersResolved
1%

Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $46 in May?

$9483 tradersResolved
99%

Will Ethereum trade below $1700 in June?

$9356 tradersResolved
99%

Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?

$9275 tradersResolved
99%

Will Rumen Radev become the new Bulgarian prime minister?

$9096 tradersResolved
99%

Will Intel trade below $94 in May?

$8998 tradersResolved
1%

Will Hyperliquid (HYPE) reach $48 in May?

$8302 tradersResolved
99%

Will there be at least one red card in PSG Arsenal Champions League Final?

$82219 tradersResolved
4%

Will Ethereum (ETH) be below $2000 on April 30, 2026?

$82216 tradersResolved
4%

Will Solana (SOL) be below $86 on May 1?

$68015 tradersResolved
81%

Will Apple release a new iMac before July 1, 2026?

$4648 tradersopen
4%

Will the government of a European country propose to withdraw from NATO before August 1, 2026?

$3409 tradersopen
9%

Will Argentina start another war over the Falklands before April 2027?

$3403 tradersopen
5%

Will Intel stock trade above $90 in May, 2026?

$3296 tradersResolved
83%

Will the US strike Oman before June 16?

$3219 tradersopen
8%

Will Péter Szijjártó, Hungary's current minister of foreign affairs, be indicted before August 1, 2026?

$29412 tradersopen
18%

Will Naftali Bennett become Israel's prime minister after the October 2026 elections?

$2758 tradersopen
28%

Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.5% in April 2026?

$2249 tradersResolved
11%

Will a meeting between former President Obama and Pope Leo XIV be announced before August 1, 2026?

$2057 tradersopen
12%

Will Apple's foldable iPhone be called 'iPhone Ultra'?

$18311 tradersopen
24%

Which of these rankings (most to least prestigious) of top philosophy journals will most people agree with?

$1546 tradersopen

Will Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon be settled out of court before August 1, 2026?

$1428 tradersopen
30%

Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?

$1127 tradersopen
34%

Which university will be in second place in the upcoming (June 2026) QS Global University Rankings 2027?

$996 tradersopen

Will Melania Trump attend the 2026 World Cup final match for national teams?

$454 tradersopen
45%

Will David Jolly become Florida's next governor?

$101 tradersopen
55%