Manifold Creator
Dylan Slagh
@DylanSlagh
Markets by Dylan Slagh
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
$2.1M1,842 tradersopen
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Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?
$1.1M77 tradersopen
3%
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
$1.0M768 tradersopen
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Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5 in 2023?
$293K286 tradersResolved
2%
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
$258K479 tradersopen
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Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 10% in 2023?
$107K101 tradersResolved
100%
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
$56K202 tradersResolved
5%
What movies will be nominated for Best Picture in the 96th Academy Awards?
$43K69 tradersResolved
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What stock currently in the S&P500 will have the most growth in stock price in 2025? (1000M subsidy)
$38K14 tradersResolved
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Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033
$34K108 tradersResolved
99%
Will the word “rationalussy” be spoken on network television during 2023?
$28K46 tradersResolved
1%
What record will receive the Grammy Award for "record of the year" at the 66th Grammy Awards?
$26K22 tradersResolved
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Derivatives markets: Will Scott Alexander's "2028 AI movie market" be above 50% on Jan 1 in each year?
$25K17 tradersopen
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Who will be the 2024 Libertarian nominee for president of the United States?
$24K22 tradersResolved
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Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market reach 20% in 2023?
$22K63 tradersResolved
99%
Will Google Home Assistant have LLM integration by March 31, 2024? [1000M subsity]
$22K48 tradersResolved
2%
Will the actors strike end by November 7, 2023?
$19K38 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028? [limited responses for less lag]
$19K44 tradersopen
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What stock currently in the S&P500 will have the most growth in stock price in 2024? (1000M subsidy)
$19K81 tradersResolved
—
Will the Actors strike end by November 30? (read description)
$17K35 tradersResolved
11%
What states, if any, will disqualify Trump from running in their 2024 Republican Primary?
$15K43 tradersResolved
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Will google home assistant have LLM integration by Oct 1, 2023?
$13K49 tradersResolved
2%
Who will be the 2032 Democratic Nominee?
$12K26 tradersopen
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Will Kamala Harris be on the 2024 Democratic Ticket?
$12K33 tradersResolved
99%
What will be the first year that I will be able to generate a video of a kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk?
$11K53 tradersResolved
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On which airline will the next major aviation disaster occur?
$10K34 tradersResolved
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What year will the next book in the Game of Thrones (ASOIAF) book series be released?
$10K36 tradersopen
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Will this market have a limit order of more than 2000M filled?
$10K4 tradersResolved
100%
Will either Alphabet (GOOG) or Microsoft (MSFT) have a higher market cap than Apple (AAPL) by the end of 2023?
$9K39 tradersResolved
1%
Who will promote to masters from diamond in Season 4 from "Ultra Gremlins"?
$8K22 tradersResolved
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Will the "Will this market's value ever hit 10%?" market resolve YES?
$8K30 tradersResolved
14%
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]
$8K59 tradersResolved
35%
Who will place first place in "Innovative Beasts" in Manifold Leagues Season 6?
$7K14 tradersResolved
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Will Grimes release a full length album in 2023?
$7K40 tradersResolved
1%
Will I be promoted to Masters?
$6K9 tradersResolved
100%
Will the University of Michigan Football team be punished for sign-stealing?
$6K6 tradersResolved
100%
Will Frank Ocean release a new album before October 1, 2023?
$5K28 tradersResolved
2%
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
$5K60 tradersopen
92%
Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2023?
$5K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will I gain the trustworthy-ish badge in 2023?
$5K18 tradersResolved
1%