Manifold Creator
Donald
@Donald
Markets by Donald
Will 4o be available for ChatGPT Plus subscribers on 1st of October 2025?
$23K32 tradersResolved
94%
Will o3 pro be released in May 2025?
$20K42 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-5 be released by 08.08.25
$16K144 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Mysterious Pneumonia Outbreak in Northern China be a Pandemic?
$14K35 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an adjustment of the quarterly growth rate in China in 2022, resulting in at least two consecutive quarters with negative growth?
$9K18 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before the end of 2024?
$9K56 tradersResolved
3%
Will OpenAI's Sora be available in the EU by the end of 2025?
$9K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will the Mysterious Pneumonia Outbreak in Northern China Spread to at least two other Countries?
$9K59 tradersResolved
3%
Will Hans Niemann be openly accused of cheating in a chess game by another player in the Sinquefield Cup (including Magnus Carlsen)?
$7K25 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI's Operator be available in the EU by the end of 2025?
$6K14 tradersResolved
98%
Will there be a US recession before the end of 2022?
$6K64 tradersResolved
5%
Will Q* (Q Star) be a significant breakthrough in AI/ML research or engineering?
$5K34 tradersResolved
92%
Will a CRISPR based treatment receive FDA approval for use in humans by EOY 2026
$4K8 tradersResolved
82%
ChatGPT 5.5 Release Week: Will 5.5 release before this date?
$2K27 tradersResolved
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Will Apple announce an AR/VR headset by the end of 2022
$2K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before 2024?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be an electricity shortage in the EU before the end of 2022?
$2K32 tradersResolved
12%
Will China invade Taiwan by EOY 2030
$2K23 tradersopen
28%
Will ASML be a monopoly in EUV lithography systems by the end of 2024?
$2K15 tradersResolved
96%
Will Starship reach reach orbit by May 31st?
$1K18 tradersResolved
2%
Will by the end of 2022 the official consensus be that the COVID 19 pandemic was most likely result of a lab leak.
$1K21 tradersResolved
5%
Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party by the end of 2022?
$1K30 tradersResolved
98%
Is the Pneumonia outbreak in China caused by lack of exposure to pathogens during the COVID lockdown?
$1K9 tradersResolved
97%
Will GPT5 have an input size >128k tokens?
$1K10 tradersResolved
1%
Are the UFO citings a result of development of the Sixth-Generation Jet Fighter Program?
$1276 tradersopen
21%
Will an intelligence report on the Chinese Spy Balloon be leaked in 2024?
$11910 tradersResolved
23%
Will there be another screen adaptation of "A Song of Ice and Fire" ("Game of Thrones")?
$602 tradersopen
14%