Manifold Creator
Devon Fritz 🔸
@DevonFritz
Markets by Devon Fritz 🔸
Will this question have 32+ traders by July 1?
$798K33 tradersResolved
100%
Will this question have 50+ traders by September 1?
$80K50 tradersResolved
100%
Will this question have 40+ traders by August 1?
$31K44 tradersResolved
100%
This question have 29+ traders by June 1?
$6K29 tradersResolved
99%
There will be a US presidential election in 2028.
$3K25 tradersopen
97%
Bitcoin hits $110,000 on Coinbase before June 30 UTC?
$3K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will this question have more than 100 traders in a month?
$2K28 tradersResolved
1%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at June 2025 FOMC meeting
$2K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will the U.S. inflation rate exceed 5% at any point in 2025?
$2K35 tradersResolved
1%
Russia-Ukraine war remains active on December 31st, 2025
$2K32 tradersResolved
99%
Will this question have 55+ traders by October 1?
$2K19 tradersResolved
1%
What percent of the popular vote will third party candidates get in the 2024 election?
$1K13 tradersResolved
—
S&P 500 closes higher on December 31st 2025 than December 31st 2024
$1K17 tradersResolved
99%
ECB cuts interest rates at September 11, 2025 meeting
$1K10 tradersResolved
6%
Will there be an official recount in any battleground state following the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
$1K20 tradersResolved
95%
Will Elon Musk publicly call into question the results of the election in a tweet by the end of the year?
$1K18 tradersResolved
5%
Sam Harris releases additional evidence of Elon Musk COVID bet before 2026
$96512 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump's import tariffs on Canada and Mexico be in effect and at least at 25% by EOY?
$80120 tradersResolved
91%
Trump serves any part of a third term?
$68214 tradersopen
6%
Will this question have 50+ traders by November 1?
$6559 tradersResolved
7%
When the G7 Leaders’ Summit ends 17 June 2025, will the official communiqué include the exact phrase "AI Safety"
$56213 tradersResolved
8%
Will a Level 4 autonomous vehicle service be operating publicly in at least five major cities globally by EOY 2025?
$4057 tradersResolved
95%
Trump strips any organization's 501c3 status?
$33311 tradersResolved
15%
Lab-grown meat product achieves 10% market share in any major national market by 2027
$2908 tradersopen
6%
Tesla Full Self-Driving approved for use in Germany in what year?
$2876 tradersopen
—
What % of the voting-eligible population will vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
$2718 tradersResolved
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Elias Rodriguez from DC shooting pleads guilty before 2026?
$2202 tradersResolved
10%
Will we get AGI before China surpasses the U.S. as the world's largest economy?
$21111 tradersopen
60%
Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026?
$1834 tradersopen
24%
Major AI research organization announces autonomous AI researcher?
$1738 tradersResolved
13%
What will be the number of U.S. federal employees at the end of 2028 as a percentage of the number in 2023?
$1464 tradersopen
—
Will any major U.S. city mandate remote work options for city employees by 2026?
$1055 tradersopen
28%
How many charities will be incubated through the Charity Entrepreneurship Incubation Program in 2025?
$693 tradersResolved
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Which joke will I find funniest?
$445 tradersResolved
40%
Will the 2025-2029 administration close a federal department in the US before Jan 20th, 2029?
$51 tradersopen
48%