Manifold Creator
David F Watson
@DavidFWatson
Markets by David F Watson
Apple September event prop bets. It's Glowtime!
$87K49 tradersResolved
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Will a judge order Google broken up? (Regardless of any appeal outcome)
$56K54 tradersResolved
3%
Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?
$54K92 tradersopen
5%
Apple announces AI company purchase for over $500m by end of 2025
$51K192 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
$31K102 tradersopen
4%
Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?
$23K71 tradersResolved
1%
Will TSLA reach >$690 before 8pm EST 12/31 2025
$17K12 tradersResolved
1%
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
$14K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by mid 2024?
$13K35 tradersResolved
99%
Which novellas will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
$12K5 tradersResolved
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Will Greenland be renamed "Red, White, and Blueland"
$12K28 tradersopen
2%
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry
$11K28 tradersopen
97%
How Many Supreme Court Justices will hold in favor of TikTok in TikTok v. Garland?
$11K39 tradersResolved
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Which novels will be *nominated* for a Hugo award in 2025
$11K9 tradersResolved
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Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis by Dec 31 2024?
$10K28 tradersResolved
1%
Will Taylor Swift Perform at the Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show
$10K11 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be CEO of Apple in 2035
$10K19 tradersopen
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Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police
$9K28 tradersResolved
2%
Will any charges be filed against a ICE/CBP agent who shot Alex Pretti? (Minneapolis)
$9K38 tradersopen
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Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Santa Clara County by December 31, 2025?
$9K4 tradersResolved
99%
Will Cruise be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?
$9K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2025?
$8K26 tradersResolved
3%
Will Susan Collins Outperform Maine's Republican Baseline in 2026?
$8K12 tradersopen
95%
Will Apple Announce a smart ring in 2024
$8K38 tradersResolved
4%
Which Novel will win a Hugo award in 2024
$6K6 tradersResolved
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Waymo reaches 2 billion miles with three or fewer at-fault fatalities?
$5K14 tradersopen
75%
At least one Apple live broadcast event in 2025
$5K10 tradersResolved
3%
Which novels will be nominated for a Hugo award in 2024 [100M Prize for Hugo Winner]
$4K11 tradersResolved
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Will Trump "Sell Out" Taiwan Under Rubio's State Department
$4K15 tradersopen
32%
What will be true about the 2024 EU Parliamentary Elections
$4K19 tradersResolved
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Will China attempt to seize Scarborough Shoal by end of May
$4K20 tradersResolved
3%
Which candidates will win seats on the Mountain View City Council in the November 2024 election
$4K6 tradersResolved
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US passes bill to move President's Day to day after Super Bowl During Trump's Second Term
$4K10 tradersopen
10%
Who will be the ultimate purchaser of Paramount by eoy 2025
$3K9 tradersResolved
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Does Apple Vision Pro require the customer to pick it up from the Apple store or require an in-store fitting process?
$3K6 tradersResolved
0%
How many Alternative App Marketplaces for iOS will be launched in Europe by July 2024?
$3K33 tradersResolved
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Andor remains available to stream on Disney+ or successor
$3K12 tradersopen
88%
Conditional on the Proposed TikTok ban/divestiture becoming law, which party wins the 2024 Election
$2K21 tradersResolved
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Will US fertility rise above 1.7 at any time during Trump’s second term?
$2K21 tradersopen
15%
Will "Our Neighborhood Voices" qualify a local control zoning initiative for the 2026 California ballot?
$2K4 tradersopen
10%