Manifold Creator
Dave K
@DaveK
Markets by Dave K
If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?
$58K21 tradersopen
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Will I conclude, at the end of 2025, that this year has been better than 2024?
$11K19 tradersResolved
98%
How many times will I be mistaken (or referred to as resembling) my dopplegangers while in Berkeley for The Curve?
$8K6 tradersResolved
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Will Jason Kwon (or OpenAI overall) propose specific policies that OpenAI supports to regulate AI by 31 December 2024?
$5K7 tradersResolved
11%
Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
$2K19 tradersopen
9%
Will Manifold schedule the 2024 Manifest conference to not end right before a major Jewish holiday?
$2K11 tradersResolved
98%
Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?
$2K16 tradersopen
78%
Will James' 100 USD prediction market product work for Manifold Love?
$2K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will I conclude, at the end of 2024, that "this year has been better than the last"?
$2K10 tradersResolved
99%
Is there an Antimemetics Division?
$2K6 tradersResolved
1%
What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ?
$2K5 tradersResolved
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By 2024, will at least one red state governor begin sending migrant buses at scale to swing states? (250M subsidy)
$80211 tradersResolved
25%
Will OpenAI publicly state that they are giving AI a board observer seat or greater on their board by 2030?
$4689 tradersopen
15%
Will I host at least 8 Jewish dinners by December 31st, 2025 (Shabbats or Jewish holidays)
$4105 tradersResolved
62%
If I go to Manifest 2023, will I successfully get back to DC prior to Kol Nidre
$2725 tradersResolved
92%
Which of these are major culture war topics in 2029? (Inspired by Nathan Young)
$26410 tradersopen
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Will I conclude, at the end of 2026, that this year has been better than 2025?
$2527 tradersopen
57%
Will the Washington-Baltimore-Arlington CSA be on track to be the largest and most important in America by 2050?
$1355 tradersopen
17%
Will I think that more anti-abortion rights than pro-abortion rights people edited Wikipedia after reading my substack?
$985 tradersResolved
20%
Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)
$00 tradersopen
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Recommend me interesting job leads that fit my skillset and experience M5000 bounty, paying at least M500 per good lead
$00 tradersopen
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