Manifold Creator
Daniel Filan
@DanielFilan
Markets by Daniel Filan
Will I make it to the final table of the Manifest 2024 poker tournament?
$95K16 tradersResolved
11%
How many YouTube views will the peak AXRP video get in 2025?
$67K10 tradersResolved
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How many episodes of AXRP will I release in 2025?
$45K9 tradersResolved
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Trump shooter: e/acc or doomer?
$34K22 tradersResolved
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Will the downtown Berkeley Target be open on the first week of April 2024?
$17K20 tradersResolved
100%
Will Alec Baldwin be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter by July 1, 2025?
$17K27 tradersResolved
2%
[M1k subsidy] Will a health care practitioner tell me my low WBC count requires medical treatment by Jan 1 2024?
$10K20 tradersResolved
2%
What will my best overall rank be for an Advent of Code 2023 problem?
$8K7 tradersResolved
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Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022?
$8K47 tradersResolved
1%
Will martial law be declared in Russia by April 1st?
$8K38 tradersResolved
1%
Will an Australian bishop become a cardinal this year?
$8K9 tradersResolved
99%
When will Asahi Linux be ready enough for me to take a Zoom call on a 2023 MacBook Pro?
$7K15 tradersResolved
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How many Manifest attendees will I see at contra on the 6th?
$5K6 tradersResolved
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How many votes will it take to elect the next Pope?
$5K9 tradersResolved
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Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time?
$5K52 tradersResolved
2%
How many episodes of AXRP will I release in 2024?
$4K9 tradersResolved
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Will Russia attack another country by July 1st 2022?
$4K53 tradersResolved
2%
Will Grimes attend my talk at Manifest?
$4K26 tradersResolved
3%
Which of these books will I enjoy reading in 2024?
$4K60 tradersResolved
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William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?
$3K11 tradersopen
49%
On Feb 1 2024, will I believe that OpenAI approached Anthropic about a merger?
$3K50 tradersResolved
17%
Will I be a Christian on Jan 1st 2023?
$3K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will the AXRP PayPal account be restored on Aug 1 2023?
$3K11 tradersResolved
98%
Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022?
$2K30 tradersResolved
0%
Will I beat Jacob Lagerros in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?
$2K12 tradersResolved
2%
Who will lead my private Advent of Code leaderboard on Jan 2 2024?
$2K8 tradersResolved
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Will Rick Korzekwa have a "romantic encounter" on the Pacific Crest Trail?
$2K19 tradersResolved
32%
Will a new episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads in 2023?
$1K8 tradersResolved
4%
Is Sam Altman actually currently in negotiations with the board to return?
$1K9 tradersResolved
98%
Will a new episode of AXRP get >3,000 downloads in 2023?
$1K7 tradersResolved
13%
Will the US attack Russia domestically by July 1st 2022?
$98923 tradersResolved
1%
Will I eat a slice of pizza at the party I'm going to on Friday?
$82413 tradersResolved
42%
Will Cardinal Christophe Pierre be apostolic nuncio to the United States at the end of 2024?
$8174 tradersResolved
99%
Will I place better than the median in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?
$73219 tradersResolved
23%
On June 1st 2022, will I be required to wear a mask inside UC Berkeley buildings?
$68418 tradersResolved
5%
Conditional on making a public Hinge profile by April 1st, will I go on a second date with somebody I met on Hinge by Jan 1st 2023?
$68022 tradersResolved
8%
Will Mickey Mouse be listed by the ADL as a hate symbol on March 1 2024?
$6169 tradersResolved
6%
Will I test positive for strep throat tomorrow?
$55420 tradersResolved
26%
Will someone recommend to me a work of fiction I end up reading and liking in the comments of this market by July 1st 2022?
$53022 tradersResolved
52%
How many people will fill out the 2024 LessWrong survey?
$51011 tradersResolved
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