Manifold Creator
Daniel Eth
@DanielEth
Markets by Daniel Eth
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?
$24K123 tradersopen
7%
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
$11K93 tradersResolved
57%
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on no AGI by 2050?
$9K32 tradersopen
15%
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
$4K35 tradersopen
46%
Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?
$3K54 tradersopen
27%
Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?
$2K13 tradersopen
3%
In 2 years, what will the Metaculus prediction for AGI timelines be?
$1K13 tradersResolved
4%
Will Aubrey de Grey ever win a Nobel Prize?
$37114 tradersopen
8%
Will Eric Drexler ever win a Nobel Prize?
$3116 tradersopen
13%
General health benefits from cold showers, accepted by 2040?
$27415 tradersopen
50%