Manifold Creator
Dan. W.
@DanW
Markets by Dan. W.
By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
$61K134 tradersopen
35%
Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
$45K82 tradersResolved
0%
By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
$14K45 tradersopen
71%
Will Google Trends activity for 'AI' be higher on July 1st 2025 then it is today?
$12K49 tradersResolved
98%
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
$9K53 tradersopen
59%
After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €70,000 / month before the end of 2023?
$5K36 tradersResolved
6%
Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?
$5K33 tradersopen
44%
I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th?
$3K10 tradersResolved
78%
After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €35,000 / month by the end of 2023?
$2K21 tradersResolved
98%
After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €100,000 / month before the end of 2023?
$2K24 tradersResolved
6%
Will Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?
$2K17 tradersopen
19%
Will Democrats reclaim control of the House & Senate in the 2024 election?
$2K15 tradersResolved
14%
How many felonies will Trump be convicted of by 2027?
$2K22 tradersopen
—
Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030?
$2K18 tradersopen
26%
Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.
$1K22 tradersResolved
32%
After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €40,000 / month by the end of 2023?
$8397 tradersResolved
95%
In which year will the next Canadian election take place?
$74817 tradersopen
—
Will Rand Paul's National Right To Work bill pass & become law before 2026?
$4455 tradersResolved
3%
Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?
$25612 tradersopen
60%
Will a PS5 cost >%10 more to US consumers as a result of tariffs before the 2026 US midterms?
$1267 tradersopen
30%