Manifold Creator

Dan. W.

@DanW

Markets by Dan. W.

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

$61K134 tradersopen
35%

Will a Democrat win an absolute majority of the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

$45K82 tradersResolved
0%

By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?

$14K45 tradersopen
71%

Will Google Trends activity for 'AI' be higher on July 1st 2025 then it is today?

$12K49 tradersResolved
98%

Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?

$9K53 tradersopen
59%

After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €70,000 / month before the end of 2023?

$5K36 tradersResolved
6%

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

$5K33 tradersopen
44%

I'm the guy who injured my shoulder wrestling at manifest. Will my shoulder heal by July 15th?

$3K10 tradersResolved
78%

After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €35,000 / month by the end of 2023?

$2K21 tradersResolved
98%

After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €100,000 / month before the end of 2023?

$2K24 tradersResolved
6%

Will Donald Trump deport, imprison, denaturalize, or attack Jack Smith using the powers of the US government?

$2K17 tradersopen
19%

Will Democrats reclaim control of the House & Senate in the 2024 election?

$2K15 tradersResolved
14%

How many felonies will Trump be convicted of by 2027?

$2K22 tradersopen

Will the USA have a national Carbon Tax by the end of 2030?

$2K18 tradersopen
26%

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

$1K22 tradersResolved
32%

After the Unity debacle, will the Godot Engine Development Fund reach €40,000 / month by the end of 2023?

$8397 tradersResolved
95%

In which year will the next Canadian election take place?

$74817 tradersopen

Will Rand Paul's National Right To Work bill pass & become law before 2026?

$4455 tradersResolved
3%

Will Violent Insurgencies Emerge in the United States before 2032?

$25612 tradersopen
60%

Will a PS5 cost >%10 more to US consumers as a result of tariffs before the 2026 US midterms?

$1267 tradersopen
30%