Manifold Creator
Damin
@Damin
Markets by Damin
US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?
$13K80 tradersopen
31%
The winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election will be the nominee of which party?
$2K25 tradersopen
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When Will METR next update their time horizon graph?
$9781 tradersResolved
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Will this be the first superbowl with 0 touchdowns?
$9351 tradersResolved
1%
What will Trump have meant by posting "a whole civilization will die tonight" on social media today?
$90119 tradersResolved
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Predetermined Coinflip
$8045 tradersResolved
39%
Conditional on AGI being developed before 2029, will there be a dyson sphere around the Sun before 2030?
$66511 tradersopen
6%
Trump directs government against Musk before 2026 ends?
$54619 tradersopen
16%
Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
$3217 tradersopen
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How good is Grok 4.20?
$06 tradersopen
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