Manifold Creator
Daisy W
@DaisyWelham
Markets by Daisy W
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
$44K45 tradersopen
12%
Will Arsenal win the Premier League in 2025?
$38K57 tradersResolved
1%
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on 1st January 2026?
$37K50 tradersResolved
99%
Will Kier Starmer still be leader of the Labour Party (UK) on 1st January 2025?
$12K20 tradersResolved
99%
Will Rishi Sunak still be leader of the Conservative Party on 1st January 2025?
$11K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Wrexham promote to the Championship by 2030?
$9K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will Ryan Reynolds and Rob McelHenney still be co-chairmen of Wrexham football club on 1st January 2026?
$3K11 tradersResolved
93%
Will Nigel Farage take over as leader of ReformUK by the next UK general election?
$2K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?
$2K26 tradersopen
71%
Will Angela Rayner be Prime Minister of the UK before December?
$2K9 tradersopen
11%
Will the date of the next UK general election be officially declared by 6th May 2024?
$2K8 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be an “Inside Out 3” by 1st January 2035?
$1K7 tradersopen
83%
Will “Frozen 3” be released by the end of 2025?
$1K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
$1K27 tradersopen
62%
Will Fnatic win the LOL World Championships in 2024?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
$9909 tradersResolved
2%
Will Catalunya leave Spain by 2040?
$90215 tradersopen
16%
Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House of Commons (UK Parliament) by the end of 2024?
$6026 tradersResolved
95%
Will RSA-260 be factored by July 1st 2024?
$4459 tradersResolved
7%
Will cancer be less deadly than dementia in 2030?
$3908 tradersopen
23%
Will Britain still use FPTP voting (and no other voting mechanisms) for picking MPs in 2040?
$37114 tradersopen
44%
Will Italy decide to leave the EU by 2040?
$3206 tradersopen
9%
Will Wales decide to leave the UK by 2040?
$29915 tradersopen
26%
Will there be fewer global cancer deaths in 2030 than in 2024?
$2789 tradersopen
25%
Will Scotland choose to leave the UK before 2040?
$26214 tradersopen
41%
Will Ed Davey still be leader of the Liberal Democrat Party (UK) on 1st January 2025?
$2386 tradersResolved
92%
Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?
$2276 tradersopen
12%
Will Boris Johnson release a full autobiography by 2030?
$1216 tradersResolved
81%
Will “histrionic personality disorder” (HPD) exist in DSM-6?
$1134 tradersopen
15%
Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?
$826 tradersopen
28%
Will there be a high fidelity copy, clone, or emulation of any famous person by 2050?
$793 tradersopen
28%
Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?
$102 tradersopen
49%
Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?
$51 tradersopen
52%