How many markets has DAL59 created on Manifold?

DAL59 has created 55 prediction markets on Manifold with $143K in total volume.

Manifold Creator

DAL59

@DAL59

Markets by DAL59

How many Starship launches will there be between now (post IFT2) and the end of 2024?

$30K38 tradersResolved

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Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?

$29K136 tradersResolved

70%

Will Belarus begin a land invasion of Ukraine from the north by the end of 2023?

$16K97 tradersResolved

Will Youtube reimplement Sorting by Oldest by the end of 2023?

$13K18 tradersResolved

100%

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

$7K23 tradersopen

25%

Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

$6K59 tradersResolved

Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2023?

$4K27 tradersResolved

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

$4K49 tradersopen

29%

Will the next successful crewed landing on the Moon be done in a Starship derived vehicle?

$4K28 tradersclosed

30%

Will there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?

$4K48 tradersopen

31%

Will George Bush endorse Harris for president by November 6th?

$3K28 tradersResolved

Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024?

$3K13 tradersResolved

Will there be an open source, uncensored AI image generator with the same or greater quality as DALLE-3 by end of 2025?

$2K22 tradersResolved

95%

Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?

$2K14 tradersResolved

96%

Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2022?

$2K15 tradersResolved

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

$2K28 tradersopen

60%

Will the 2024 Gävle Goat be a victim of arson or theft, or other form of criminal destruction?

$2K17 tradersResolved

How many of the following cities, currently under Russian control, will be under Ukrainian control on June 22nd, 2023?

$1K18 tradersResolved

13%

Will Nat Friedman's puzzle be declared solved by the end of 2023?

$1K14 tradersResolved

11%

Will the anime ending of Attack on Titan differ substantially from the manga’s? Alternative ending also resolves as yes.

$77822 tradersResolved

26%

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

$55315 tradersopen

40%

What will today's XKCD's code do?

$4798 tradersResolved

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[Chainsaw Man] Who is Fakesaw man?

$4705 tradersclosed

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Will the Worth the Candle art in r/place be at least partially recognizable by the end?

$4188 tradersResolved

In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?

$4087 tradersopen

—

US Republican Party Stock [Permanent]

$3729 tradersopen

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Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception?

$36715 tradersopen

20%

Will DearMoon launch in 2023 as planned?

$3528 tradersResolved

Will there be a text and/or image generating NN with at least 175 billion parameters that is open source by end of 2023?

$3499 tradersResolved

89%

Will the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic?

$3487 tradersopen

30%

Will Belarus begin a land invasion of western Ukraine by the end of 2022?

$32612 tradersResolved

13%

Will Inner or Outer AI alignment be considered "mostly solved" first?

$31411 tradersopen

—

Will Manifold Markets re-add the ability to create Multiple Choice markets by the end of the year?

$31213 tradersResolved

64%

Which skill listed in The Order of The Stick #1268 will end up saving the day?

$21110 tradersclosed

—

Will any more of Liber Primus (Cicada 3301) be solved by the end of 2022?

$2001 tradersResolved

10%

Who will win the 2023 Minecraft Mob Vote?

$1899 tradersResolved

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Who or what is the Monster In The Darkness (Order of the Stick)?

$1867 tradersopen

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DAL59

Markets by DAL59

How many Starship launches will there be between now (post IFT2) and the end of 2024?

Will someone make an AI that can search the internet and automatically invest in Manifold Markets depending on its research by the end of 2023?

Will Belarus begin a land invasion of Ukraine from the north by the end of 2023?

Will Youtube reimplement Sorting by Oldest by the end of 2023?

By 2073, will it be possible for humans to regrow functional, fully biological limbs?

Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2023?

Will humans land on a planet, dwarf planet, or moon large enough to be spheroid in shape OTHER than the Moon or Mars by the end of 2050?

Will the next successful crewed landing on the Moon be done in a Starship derived vehicle?

Will there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?

Will George Bush endorse Harris for president by November 6th?

Will Levy Rozman (GothamChess) become a certified GM by the end of 2024?

Will there be an open source, uncensored AI image generator with the same or greater quality as DALLE-3 by end of 2025?

Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?

Will SpaceX become a publicly traded company by the end of 2022?

Will an AI capable of playing Kerbal Space Program (1 or 2) at a proficient human level exist by the end of 2028?

Will the 2024 Gävle Goat be a victim of arson or theft, or other form of criminal destruction?

How many of the following cities, currently under Russian control, will be under Ukrainian control on June 22nd, 2023?

Will Nat Friedman's puzzle be declared solved by the end of 2023?

Will the anime ending of Attack on Titan differ substantially from the manga’s? Alternative ending also resolves as yes.

Will life be discovered on Venus by 2052?

In what year will a human first land on a moon of an outer planet?

Will DearMoon launch in 2024 (1 year behind scheduled date of 2023)

By 2035, will the presence of anomalously high levels of phosphine on Venus be confirmed by spacecraft?

What will today's XKCD's code do?

[Chainsaw Man] Who is Fakesaw man?

Will the Worth the Candle art in r/place be at least partially recognizable by the end?

In what year will an AI successfully beat The Talos Principle?

US Republican Party Stock [Permanent]

Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception?

Will DearMoon launch in 2023 as planned?

Will there be a text and/or image generating NN with at least 175 billion parameters that is open source by end of 2023?

Will the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic?

Will Belarus begin a land invasion of western Ukraine by the end of 2022?

Will Inner or Outer AI alignment be considered "mostly solved" first?

Will Manifold Markets re-add the ability to create Multiple Choice markets by the end of the year?

Which skill listed in The Order of The Stick #1268 will end up saving the day?

Will any more of Liber Primus (Cicada 3301) be solved by the end of 2022?

Who will win the 2023 Minecraft Mob Vote?

Who or what is the Monster In The Darkness (Order of the Stick)?