Manifold Creator
Craig Talbert
@CraigTalbert
Markets by Craig Talbert
Will a stock market circuit breaker halt trading in the U.S. within the next week?
$180K278 tradersResolved
1%
Will o4-mini-high conclude telepathically communicating with dogs and cats is ethically wrong based on your arguments?
$12K40 tradersResolved
49%
Will it snow in Denver, Colorado before Halloween this year?
$12K26 tradersResolved
6%
At least one person dies from violence at a polling place on US Election Day (Nov. 5th, 2024).
$10K102 tradersResolved
10%
Will the U.S. conduct a military strike on Venezuelan territory within 24 hours of market creation?
$10K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will Pam Bondi be Donald Trump’s first Attorney General?
$10K15 tradersResolved
99%
In 2024 will there be RFK Jr. copycats who deliberately put large animal carcasses in urban parks to amuse themselves?
$6K24 tradersResolved
2%
Will the Esquire Theatre in Denver, Colorado, be operational as a theatre in 2025?
$5K3 tradersResolved
3%
Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?
$4K11 tradersopen
10%
Will Donald Trump express remorse that Bolivian General Juan José Zúñiga‘s coup attempt failed?
$4K9 tradersResolved
5%
Will I reconcile with my sister by the end of 2025?
$2K11 tradersResolved
12%
Will officials determine that the Oct 4, 2025 fire at Judge Diane Goodstein’s home was intentionally set (arson)?
$2K8 tradersResolved
15%
Will the 2028 U.S. presidential election end with no candidate breaking the 270-vote barrier?
$2K9 tradersopen
15%
Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?
$2K6 tradersopen
28%
Will the 2024 U.S. presidential election result in no candidate receiving more than 270 electoral votes?
$1K17 tradersResolved
4%
Will Mike Tyson die from an injury sustained in his fight with Jake Paul? Either during the fight or within 96 hours.
$1K10 tradersResolved
1%
Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?
$1K18 tradersopen
44%
Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?
$1K6 tradersopen
54%
Will Manifold think Ewoks are cool?
$99815 tradersResolved
99%
Colorado cavers confirm reopening "Cyclopean Cave" near Leadville by end-2026?
$9045 tradersopen
39%
Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?
$6368 tradersopen
27%
Will the (unweighted) average US age of consent increase by Dec 31, 2035?
$5504 tradersopen
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Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?
$5153 tradersopen
30%
Venus will be successfully terraformed before Mars?
$50114 tradersopen
7%
Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?
$43514 tradersopen
36%
Which months in 2024 will the Gaza Aid JLOTS Pier be operational for more than five days?
$4333 tradersResolved
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By 2075 there will be an OTC product that can change your sexual orientation to whatever you’d like at the time.
$4001 tradersopen
34%
What (if any) crime will Shayne Coplan be charged with?
$2456 tradersResolved
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In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?
$2254 tradersopen
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Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?
$1522 tradersopen
48%
Why don’t we discourage children from practicing bad epistemics like we discourage them from smoking? Add answers!
$825 tradersResolved
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Will ETHDenver 2027 have higher attendance than ETHDenver 2026?
$552 tradersopen
53%
In 2025, will more Americans relocate due to the 2024 US election than will relocate in 2037 due to the Year 2038 Bug?
$522 tradersopen
53%
How long will it take to contain the wildfire burning southwest of Boulder near Flatirons and Mallory Cave hiking area?
$301 tradersResolved
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Who wins in a fight: Thermians or Trisolarians?
$04 tradersResolved
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Do you believe the 2019 film Midsommar is as frightening to Europeans as it is to Americans and other non-Europeans?
$07 tradersResolved
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Ewoks are cool?
$019 tradersResolved
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Best decade in American history in the last 125 years
$018 tradersResolved
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