Manifold Creator
Conflux 🔗
@Conflux
Markets by Conflux 🔗
Will the average percentage of this market be above 50%? ("The Market")
$2.3M458 tradersResolved
1%
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)?
$214K288 tradersResolved
100%
[read description] Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to poll)
$197K636 tradersResolved
61%
Who will come out in support of Joe Biden dropping out (before it happens)?
$147K84 tradersResolved
—
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
$107K90 tradersResolved
100%
Which party will win the Metagame Election Tournament?
$97K18 tradersResolved
—
Will Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles all attend Manifest 2023 (as some part of the official program)?
$95K112 tradersResolved
—
How many Senate seats will Republicans control after the 2024 elections?
$76K121 tradersResolved
—
Which words/phrases will appear in the lyrics of The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift's upcoming album)?
$60K125 tradersResolved
—
Will Scott Alexander, Aella, Destiny, and Robert Miles all attend Manifest 2023?
$49K89 tradersResolved
—
Will the Speaker of the House (Kevin McCarthy) serve for a full two years?
$49K100 tradersResolved
0%
Prop bets on The Tortured Poets Department! (Taylor Swift’s upcoming album)
$41K125 tradersResolved
—
Will Amanda Askell have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?
$34K28 tradersopen
99%
Who will Chris Christie endorse next for president in 2024?
$33K72 tradersResolved
—
Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?
$30K83 tradersopen
26%
Will I be on the “Top traders” all-time leaderboard by May 2?
$28K17 tradersResolved
1%
Who will Mike Pence endorse next for president in 2024?
$27K152 tradersResolved
—
Will my posture be essentially normal in a year (on January 17, 2025)?
$27K27 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]
$27K112 tradersopen
36%
Will Manifold loans be automatic for new users on January 19th?
$27K40 tradersResolved
0%
Will I learn of a “nice number” besides 69 by the end of March 2023? (revised definition)
$27K34 tradersResolved
2%
Will Team YES have more total sqrt(shares) than Team NO?
$26K75 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifest have a ball pit?
$26K80 tradersResolved
100%
Will @Austin and @RachelWeinberg be married by end of August?
$26K24 tradersResolved
100%
Will Taylor Swift release 1989 (Taylor's Version) in 2023?
$25K44 tradersResolved
99%
Will another Ivy League college president resign by December 23?
$24K64 tradersResolved
1%
Will Mike Johnson serve as Speaker of the House until the end of the term?
$24K45 tradersResolved
99%
Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)
$24K183 tradersResolved
90%
Will the Market Manipulation Podcast be on a legit dedicated podcast platform within a week?
$23K11 tradersResolved
100%
Will Manifold add the ability to pin comments by end of October?
$23K36 tradersResolved
0%
Will Manifold implement some kind of "smart-sell" feature by end of April?
$23K21 tradersResolved
0%
Will @IsaacKing correctly resolve the Whales vs. Minnows market? [according to poll]
$23K43 tradersResolved
99%
Will I stay up past 4am in 2023?
$23K65 tradersResolved
1%
Who will win the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election?
$22K44 tradersResolved
—
Will Proof School be in person for every day of the 2022-23 school year? [AP calc day counts as N/A]
$20K48 tradersResolved
3%
Is yoohoo HMYS?
$20K22 tradersResolved
99%
Where will Jet Lag: The Game Season 12 visit?
$19K25 tradersResolved
—
Will @IsaacKing correctly resolve the Whales vs. Minnows market? [according to me]
$18K26 tradersResolved
100%
Will Jacinda Ardern return to NZ Parliament by 2026?
$18K11 tradersopen
3%
Will Proof School host an official dance this school year?
$18K33 tradersResolved
99%