Manifold Creator
Collected Over Spread
@CollectedOverSpread
Markets by Collected Over Spread
Will Bluesky be decentralized in practice before the end of 2024?
$18K27 tradersResolved
97%
Will I be able to tweet a Mastodon link on 2023-01-01?
$17K178 tradersResolved
95%
Will the LAX/Metro Transit Center station open in Los Angeles before the end of 2025?
$9K7 tradersResolved
99%
In 2023, will Manifold implement a feature that allows the general userbase to flag markets that need to be resolved but remain unresolved for an extended period?
$8K28 tradersResolved
3%
Will REAL ID-compliant identification be required for domestic air travel in the US in 2025?
$6K54 tradersResolved
72%
A year after the Manifold pivot, what will be allowed under the "significantly tighten[ed] rules" for market resolution?
$4K13 tradersResolved
—
Will the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health's website support HTTPS before the end of 2024?
$4K11 tradersResolved
5%
Will I hold any shares in "stale" markets on Manifold (those that have not yet been resolved 30 days after their "expiration") at the end of January 2024?
$4K14 tradersResolved
2%
Will Megaplex (US furry convention) have more attendees in 2023 than in 2022?
$3K19 tradersResolved
98%
(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?
$3K12 tradersopen
—
Will catgirl Mana-chan be "a thing" by the end of April 2024?
$3K14 tradersResolved
1%
What will be the status of the Los Angeles Metro D (Purple) Line Extension by the 2028 Summer Olympics?
$2K6 tradersopen
—
Will Sound Transit East Link light-rail service run between Seattle and Bellevue before the end of 2024?
$2K11 tradersResolved
2%
How many people will attend Phase Connect's Phase Con in 2026?
$2K2 tradersopen
—
Will "The Kidney One" appear on the ballot in California in 2024?
$1K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold allow users to view all topics for a question in 2024?
$1K7 tradersResolved
95%
Will I attend another Manifold-related event in 2023?
$1K10 tradersResolved
6%
Will Sound Transit East Link light-rail service run between Seattle and Bellevue before the end of 2025?
$1K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will Discord restore the "Copy Link" option in the right-click context menu in the Web browser client before EOY 2024?
$1K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will Andrew McCutchen make a "furries" tweet during Anthrocon 2024?
$1K6 tradersResolved
1%
Will browsing Astral Codex Ten be less annoying before the end of 2024?
$1K16 tradersResolved
74%
Will we "look back and nothing of significance would have happened" with the .zip and .mov TLDs a year after launch?
$79616 tradersResolved
77%
If a Dark Manifold Ritual (10+ people) takes place at the officewarming party, will it take place at/around 9:17 PM?
$6586 tradersResolved
97%
Will I be "fired upon" in the culture wars in 2023?
$65215 tradersResolved
10%
Will I meet any other Manifold users during my trip to the San Francisco Bay Area during Easter weekend 2024?
$50721 tradersResolved
31%
Will the two Aviation Boulevard stations on Los Angeles Metro's K Line open before the end of 2024?
$4404 tradersResolved
2%
When will RFC 10000 be published?
$4153 tradersopen
—
Will I hear someone pronounce a year between 2010 and 2099 as "two thousand..." in 2023?
$3719 tradersResolved
89%
If the linked market resolves to NO, how "far away" is the formula from being a theorem or anti-theorem?
$3414 tradersResolved
16%
How long (in minutes) will it take me to get to Manifold's officewarming party after reaching the building?
$2778 tradersResolved
22%
My Little Pony 2027 "Total Brand Reinvention" Prop Bets
$2356 tradersopen
—
Will I have an active dating profile on Manifold.love in 2024?
$2035 tradersResolved
20%
Will I attend a large organized event that has a requirement intended to prevent a specific disease other than COVID-19 before 2026?
$1267 tradersResolved
28%
Will there be animated media of My Little Pony "Generation 6" before...?
$1165 tradersopen
—
Will Andrew McCutchen make another "Furries" tweet during Anthrocon 2023?
$1054 tradersResolved
83%
Will I have any Twitter account notifications enabled on my phone at the end of 2023?
$1052 tradersResolved
12%
Will Manifold be able to merge/deduplicate groups/categories/topics before the end of 2024?
$736 tradersResolved
69%
Will the Regional Connector (Metro Rail) in downtown Los Angeles open in 2023?
$702 tradersResolved
71%
If I fly into MKE (Milwaukee), will I see the "Welcome to Cleveland" sign?
$293 tradersResolved
36%