Manifold Creator

ClubmasterTransparent

@ClubmasterTransparent

Markets by ClubmasterTransparent

Which of the following is true of Elon Musk?

$129K243 tradersResolved

What commercials will CNN air during its Biden-Trump debate?

$94K24 tradersResolved

Will Sam Altman sign a formal agreement to return to OpenAI as described below before NYSE opens Monday?

$72K254 tradersResolved
13%

Conditional on Kristi Noem speaks at RNC, will she mention or reference willingness to kill, or shoot, animals?

$29K14 tradersResolved
1%

Which of the following players will be on the winning Women’s NCAA Championship basketball team?

$28K19 tradersResolved

Who will Time Magazine select as Person Of The Year 2024?

$12K64 tradersResolved

Will Donald Trump choose a VP running mate before Travis Kelce proposes to Taylor Swift?

$12K19 tradersResolved
99%

Will @strutheo’s market “Will I Slay All 20 Top Creators” drop below 50% for >72 hours during May-June 2024?

$10K14 tradersResolved
1%

Will Nikki Haley imply the 2020 election was not legitimate, or evade the question if asked directly, before Jan 7 2025?

$10K13 tradersResolved
1%

Will at least one OpenAI employee say this week that they have seen Sam Altman in the office doing things?

$4K29 tradersResolved
65%

Will the "culture war" come for AI before end 2024?

$4K44 tradersclosed
11%

Will Travis Kelce sign a pre-nup in 2024?

$4K20 tradersResolved
1%

Conditional on Tucker Carlson interviewing Vladimir Putin in February, will the US officially respond?

$3K38 tradersResolved
7%

Will Trump be incarcerated for contempt of court at any point during his NYC criminal trial?

$3K23 tradersResolved
8%

How many results will a search for "Dark Brandon" on Amazon Prime return on December 17, 2023 ?

$3K21 tradersResolved

Will Truth Social still be functioning May 1, 2024?

$3K14 tradersResolved
99%

Will Elon Musk be reported to have purchased any of the debt incurred by Twitter by April 30, 2024?

$3K11 tradersResolved
1%

Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1, 2025?

$2K11 tradersResolved
99%

What does Manifold need more of to be sustainable as a profit-making entity and useful predictor?

$2K69 tradersResolved

According to Manifold users, which possible cause of human extinction by AI needs the most urgent attention?

$1K37 tradersclosed

Will Truth Social trade on the Nasdaq on March 29, 2026?

$1K13 tradersclosed
50%

What do Manifold users consider the single greatest risk associated with development of AI?

$1K26 tradersResolved

Will Rudy Giuliani be alive and able to perform Activities of Daily Living on January 1, 2025?

$9275 tradersResolved
99%

Will Sir Cryptomind become a Manifold Partner Creator on or before June 30, 2024?

$7013 tradersResolved
98%

Of these advertising icons, which will still be with us by Super Bowl Sunday 2024?

$6605 tradersResolved

What is the most terrible advice you have received in your life? Resolves to top 3 I personally think are most terrible.

$59017 tradersResolved

Will Nikki Haley state the 2020 election was legitimate before January 7, 2025?

$42919 tradersResolved
18%

Will Manifold face an economic crisis if @Mira liquidates their positions and/or stops trading?

$41819 tradersResolved
11%

Manifold Big Pivot: Conditional on at least one user publicly quits within 3 days of reveal, what will be true?

$36016 tradersclosed

Will Nikki Haley state unequivocally that slavery was a cause of the US Civil War before January 7, 2025?

$2796 tradersResolved
90%

On January 10, will I consider Manifold gives away mana like it's candy?

$23212 tradersResolved
59%

Will Macaulay Culkin make the news within one month of the Emmys? Kid brother Kieran is nominated for Lead Actor.

$2155 tradersResolved
13%

Should US securities law apply to crypto?

$1443 tradersclosed
21%

Will Manifold have an Instagram account by end of 2024?

$1298 tradersclosed
27%

Will a class of investors be certified in a securities lawsuit against FTX and/or SBF before December 31, 2024?

$1153 tradersclosed
14%

A security exists: Alameda shares in Manifold. Will it be worth more than Soviet-era 100 ruble note on January 31, 2024?

$1009 tradersResolved
63%

Which Led Zeppelin album is greatest?

$281 tradersResolved

Of these 5 classic British bands that never made it in the US, which is best?

$252 tradersclosed

A real customer walked into a bar in the market below and asked where's the bathroom. Will the bar burst into flames?

$11 tradersResolved
51%

What would bring more life to "Manifold: Live"?

$0187 tradersopen