Manifold Creator

Civilized Guy

@CivilizedGuy

Markets by Civilized Guy

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drop out of the Presidential race before November 1, 2024.

$34K102 tradersResolved
99%

Who will be Republican Presidential nominee?

$32K41 tradersResolved

Who will be the next presidential candidate to drop out of the 2024 presidential election?

$28K52 tradersResolved

Will more than 100 Israeli troops invade Gaza before October 31?

$18K96 tradersResolved
93%

Will Donald Trump step down as Republican candidate in 2024 and name JD Vance the Republican candidate for president?

$18K68 tradersResolved
1%

Will the US government shutdown on November 17?

$16K17 tradersResolved
0%

Will Trump be president on 12/31/2025?

$15K46 tradersResolved
99%

Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Monday November 20 in Kansas City against the Eagles?

$14K45 tradersResolved
1%

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?

$13K58 tradersopen
80%

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

$13K79 tradersopen
25%

When will X CEO Linda Yaccarino be ex-CEO?

$12K16 tradersResolved

Will Russia conduct a nuclear test before December 31 2023?

$8K64 tradersResolved
2%

Will Trump be penalized in anyway (fined, jailed, etc) for violating any GAG order a third time.

$8K109 tradersResolved
13%

Will economic aid for Ukraine AND Israel be approved by House and Senate, and signed by the President by Nov 30, 2023?

$7K37 tradersResolved
1%

Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected in November 2024?

$7K32 tradersResolved
93%

Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs at Broncos game on October 29?

$7K58 tradersResolved
10%

Will Apple (AAPL) stock close above $200 by the last trading day of 2023? It closed at $173.97 on 11/1/23.

$7K22 tradersResolved
3%

Who will be the next US President to die?

$6K42 tradersopen

Will a government agent kill another American citizen before February 28, 2026?

$5K53 tradersResolved
6%

Will Marjorie Taylor Green be re-elected in November 2024.

$4K11 tradersResolved
96%

Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Thursday Oct 12?

$4K24 tradersResolved
98%

Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?

$4K30 tradersopen
63%

Will the US approve financial aid to Israel AND Ukraine by October 31?

$4K37 tradersResolved
3%

Who will be the next US president to die?

$4K23 tradersResolved

Who will be the next Presidential hopeful to be out of the 2024 Presidential race.

$4K10 tradersResolved

Will there be another Category 1 or stronger hurricane to hit Florida before the end of hurricane season on 11/30/2023

$4K9 tradersResolved
1%

Who will win the World Series?

$3K16 tradersResolved

Does the United States have military forces in Venezuela on January 6, 2026?

$3K6 tradersResolved
4%

Will Hamas release more hostages of any nationality before October 31, 23:59?

$3K27 tradersResolved
3%

How many games will the World Series be?

$3K5 tradersResolved

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2026?

$3K30 tradersopen
91%

Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?

$3K15 tradersResolved

Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs vs Green Bay game at GB on Sunday Dec 3? The game is on Sunday Night Football.

$2K7 tradersResolved
99%

Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City vs San Diego game on October 22?

$2K22 tradersResolved
86%

Will Israel use a nuclear weapon by 23:59 on December 31, 2023 ?

$2K15 tradersResolved
1%

Will Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in Congress be expelled before the end of 2023?

$2K13 tradersResolved
2%

Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress.

$1K9 tradersopen

Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected in November 2024?

$1K11 tradersResolved
97%

Will Pam Bondi be Attorney General of the United States on 12/31/26?

$1K12 tradersResolved
1%

Will the total death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach a total 2500 people? (Arabs/Israelis/Others)

$1K12 tradersResolved
96%