Manifold Creator
Civilized Guy
@CivilizedGuy
Markets by Civilized Guy
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drop out of the Presidential race before November 1, 2024.
$34K102 tradersResolved
99%
Who will be Republican Presidential nominee?
$32K41 tradersResolved
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Who will be the next presidential candidate to drop out of the 2024 presidential election?
$28K52 tradersResolved
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Will more than 100 Israeli troops invade Gaza before October 31?
$18K96 tradersResolved
93%
Will Donald Trump step down as Republican candidate in 2024 and name JD Vance the Republican candidate for president?
$18K68 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US government shutdown on November 17?
$16K17 tradersResolved
0%
Will Trump be president on 12/31/2025?
$15K46 tradersResolved
99%
Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Monday November 20 in Kansas City against the Eagles?
$14K45 tradersResolved
1%
Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?
$13K58 tradersopen
80%
Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?
$13K79 tradersopen
25%
When will X CEO Linda Yaccarino be ex-CEO?
$12K16 tradersResolved
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Will Russia conduct a nuclear test before December 31 2023?
$8K64 tradersResolved
2%
Will Trump be penalized in anyway (fined, jailed, etc) for violating any GAG order a third time.
$8K109 tradersResolved
13%
Will economic aid for Ukraine AND Israel be approved by House and Senate, and signed by the President by Nov 30, 2023?
$7K37 tradersResolved
1%
Will Lauren Boebert be re-elected in November 2024?
$7K32 tradersResolved
93%
Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs at Broncos game on October 29?
$7K58 tradersResolved
10%
Will Apple (AAPL) stock close above $200 by the last trading day of 2023? It closed at $173.97 on 11/1/23.
$7K22 tradersResolved
3%
Who will be the next US President to die?
$6K42 tradersopen
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Will a government agent kill another American citizen before February 28, 2026?
$5K53 tradersResolved
6%
Will Marjorie Taylor Green be re-elected in November 2024.
$4K11 tradersResolved
96%
Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Thursday Oct 12?
$4K24 tradersResolved
98%
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
$4K30 tradersopen
63%
Will the US approve financial aid to Israel AND Ukraine by October 31?
$4K37 tradersResolved
3%
Who will be the next US president to die?
$4K23 tradersResolved
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Who will be the next Presidential hopeful to be out of the 2024 Presidential race.
$4K10 tradersResolved
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Will there be another Category 1 or stronger hurricane to hit Florida before the end of hurricane season on 11/30/2023
$4K9 tradersResolved
1%
Who will win the World Series?
$3K16 tradersResolved
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Does the United States have military forces in Venezuela on January 6, 2026?
$3K6 tradersResolved
4%
Will Hamas release more hostages of any nationality before October 31, 23:59?
$3K27 tradersResolved
3%
How many games will the World Series be?
$3K5 tradersResolved
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Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2026?
$3K30 tradersopen
91%
Which nation will conduct a full scale nuclear test in 2024?
$3K15 tradersResolved
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Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs vs Green Bay game at GB on Sunday Dec 3? The game is on Sunday Night Football.
$2K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City vs San Diego game on October 22?
$2K22 tradersResolved
86%
Will Israel use a nuclear weapon by 23:59 on December 31, 2023 ?
$2K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in Congress be expelled before the end of 2023?
$2K13 tradersResolved
2%
Which party will hold the majority in the House of Representatives in January 2027 in the 120th Congress.
$1K9 tradersopen
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Will Matt Gaetz be re-elected in November 2024?
$1K11 tradersResolved
97%
Will Pam Bondi be Attorney General of the United States on 12/31/26?
$1K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will the total death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach a total 2500 people? (Arabs/Israelis/Others)
$1K12 tradersResolved
96%