Manifold Creator
Chaos Is A Ladder
@ChaosIsALadder
Markets by Chaos Is A Ladder
If the U.S. stops sending military assistance to Ukraine, will there be a ceasefire by the end of 2025?
$146K79 tradersResolved
—
Will Ukraine acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2028, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
$10K24 tradersopen
—
Will Russia lose its only naval base on the Mediterranean by the end of the year?
$5K53 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced short-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
$3K19 tradersResolved
6%
Will the Georgian Dream party win the election?
$3K17 tradersResolved
98%
Why does Grok 3 only have language ratings in English, Chinese, Russian, and Korean in the LM Arena?
$3K7 tradersResolved
—
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced medium-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
$3K9 tradersResolved
7%
Will Ukraine demonstrate a domestically-produced intermediate-range ballistic missile by the end of 2025?
$3K12 tradersResolved
8%
Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine within the next 30 days?
$2K25 tradersResolved
1%
Will MiniMax release the weights of its M2.7 model by the end of the week?
$2K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will Serbia's president Vučić stay in power throughout 2025?
$2K24 tradersResolved
99%
When will Russia's offensive in Ukraine end?
$2K18 tradersResolved
—
When will Google release its IMO-AI?
$1K11 tradersResolved
—
How much faster will NVIDIA's upcoming flagship GPU (probably RTX 5090) be compared to the RTX 4090?
$1K12 tradersResolved
—
When will Russia have a higher MoM inflation rate than Argentina during 2025?
$1K11 tradersResolved
—
Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?
$1K13 tradersopen
29%
Will Vučić flee like Assad?
$1K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will the far-right politician Kickl become Austria's new chancellor by the end of March?
$1K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will o3-mini beat DeepSeek r1 in LiveBench?
$1K18 tradersResolved
99%
When will Stuttgart 21 be in operation?
$1K8 tradersopen
—
Will the ruble roll?
$9727 tradersResolved
1%
Will Russia have a higher inflation rate than Argentina in December 2024?
$96611 tradersResolved
1%
Will Kearm resolve his market today?
$9523 tradersResolved
99%
Will Fico lose a vote of no confidence before March?
$9413 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US sanctions on Russia be largely lifted before 2026?
$94017 tradersResolved
4%
How much territory will Ukraine's new offensive capture before Trump’s inauguration?
$7199 tradersResolved
—
Will The Washington Post endorse Kamala Harris?
$6807 tradersResolved
2%
What score will o1-pro achieve on FrontierMath?
$6429 tradersResolved
—
Will credible evidence emerge linking Tulsi Gabbard to Putin before 2030?
$62913 tradersopen
24%
Will Alibaba release Qwen 3 by the end of April 2025?
$6127 tradersResolved
95%
Will Transnistria solve its gas problem before the winter ends?
$5654 tradersResolved
97%
Will China turn on Russia before 2030?
$55114 tradersopen
48%
Will Ukraine lower the mobilization age to 18 in 2025?
$5509 tradersResolved
8%
Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026?
$4809 tradersopen
5%
Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?
$4704 tradersopen
—
Will conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
$43018 tradersopen
41%
Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?
$39711 tradersopen
14%
Will MiniMax release the weights of its M2.7 model by the end of the week?
$3924 tradersResolved
95%
Will Microsoft replace all C/C++ code with rust by 2030?
$3888 tradersopen
6%
Is the counterexample to the Mizohata-Takeuchi conjecture trivially invalid?
$3668 tradersResolved
8%