Manifold Creator
Carson Gale
@CarsonGale
Markets by Carson Gale
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by September 30th?
$324K119 tradersResolved
1%
Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
$76K194 tradersResolved
98%
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by end of 2023?
$71K134 tradersResolved
1%
Will I lose 20+ lbs after taking semaglutide for 3 months?
$69K105 tradersResolved
93%
By the end of 2023, will my most popular market have > 200 unique traders?
$63K21 tradersResolved
100%
Will any of my markets have >200 unique traders by end of 2023?
$52K27 tradersResolved
100%
Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?
$50K175 tradersResolved
14%
Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?
$41K157 tradersResolved
2%
Will AI reliably produce images with the specified number of fingers on two hands by end of 2023?
$38K119 tradersResolved
4%
Will the #20 position on the all-time creator leaderboard have traders >10K by end of 2023?
$37K13 tradersResolved
100%
Can China restore economic growth to more than 5% in 2023?
$30K146 tradersResolved
84%
Will Manifold change its logo by end of 2025?
$29K16 tradersResolved
98%
Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026
$27K18 tradersopen
9%
Will the 2024 US Presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win the election?
$25K141 tradersResolved
99%
Will Twitter incorporate a prediction market into its platform by 2027?
$25K223 tradersopen
37%
Will I live to be 150 years old?
$24K44 tradersopen
13%
At 9:17pm PT, will 7 or more party attendees perform the "Dark Manifold Ritual"?
$23K19 tradersResolved
99%
In 2023, will the "norm" be to cleave 50%+ of workforces?
$19K21 tradersResolved
0%
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
$19K113 tradersopen
41%
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2025?
$19K33 tradersResolved
84%
Will Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom be released in May 2023?
$18K21 tradersResolved
100%
Will the US retract its assessment that the Chinese balloon circling Montana was a spy vehicle by end of February?
$18K40 tradersResolved
0%
Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?
$18K57 tradersopen
25%
Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate?
$17K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce publicly confirm they have broken up by end of 2023?
$16K44 tradersResolved
0%
Will my parents' home in Land 'o Lakes Florida experience significant damage from Hurricane Milton?
$15K42 tradersResolved
12%
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
$15K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold create a public Manifold app for Android devices by Jan 1, 2023
$14K32 tradersResolved
98%
Will some U.S. lawyers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
$14K61 tradersResolved
30%
Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?
$13K69 tradersopen
32%
Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2024?
$13K39 tradersResolved
1%
In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?
$13K85 tradersopen
53%
In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface?
$13K43 tradersResolved
1%
Will any Manifold party guest sing for other attendees for at least 2 minutes?
$12K7 tradersResolved
100%
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
$12K74 tradersopen
78%
Will I be able to create matrix markets on Manifold by end of 2023?
$12K65 tradersResolved
1%
Will Kanye West buy Parler by June 2023?
$12K37 tradersResolved
1%
Will I throw a party for Manifold users in the Bay Area in 2023?
$12K21 tradersResolved
99%
What will happen to my parents / their home from Hurricane Milton?
$12K29 tradersResolved
—
Will I live to be 100 years old?
$12K58 tradersopen
32%