Manifold Creator
Cameron Holmes
@CameronHolmes
Markets by Cameron Holmes
Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?
$29K91 tradersResolved
1%
Will Reddit's market cap on IPO exceed X?
$18K31 tradersResolved
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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a Thread containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?
$15K45 tradersResolved
1%
Will John Green participate in Jet Lag before 2025?
$15K17 tradersResolved
1%
By when will Reddit IPO?
$8K27 tradersResolved
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By when will Malaria be Eradicated?
$4K35 tradersopen
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Is this /r/Place a good business move for Reddit?
$4K55 tradersResolved
77%
Will Sam win Jet Lag S5 (NZ)?
$2K12 tradersResolved
98%
Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2025 Tax year?
$2K18 tradersResolved
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Which team will win DotA International (TI) 2023 Western Europe Qualifiers?
$2K7 tradersResolved
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By when will Freetrade IPO?
$2K9 tradersopen
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By when will Elon Musk have another baby?
$2K9 tradersResolved
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Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?
$1K32 tradersopen
64%
Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
$94816 tradersopen
22%
Will Nvidia report gross margins lower than 60% in any year by 2028?
$78311 tradersopen
56%
Will Black Students Be Less Than 10% of the Ivy League Class of 2028?
$43412 tradersopen
37%
Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2026 Tax year?
$41212 tradersResolved
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Which YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026
$38711 tradersopen
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Would Oxbridge win University Challenge without college-level entries?
$2968 tradersopen
58%
Will Pax Dei reach 100k concurrent players by 2026?
$2454 tradersResolved
5%
Will Dune: Awakening reach 100k concurrent players by 2025?
$1435 tradersResolved
75%
Freetrade's market cap at IPO exceeds:
$1114 tradersResolved
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Will an OSRS poll for adding the Sailing skill pass by Jan 1st 2025?
$602 tradersResolved
78%
Will GiveWell make further grants for Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) before 2027?
$302 tradersopen
42%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky (@ESYudkowsky) unfollow Julian (@mealreplacer) on Twitter?
$132 tradersResolved
56%
Will Pax Dei feature a PLEX-like system?
$111 tradersopen
41%