Manifold Creator

Cameron Holmes

@CameronHolmes

Markets by Cameron Holmes

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

$29K91 tradersResolved
1%

Will Reddit's market cap on IPO exceed X?

$18K31 tradersResolved

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a Thread containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?

$15K45 tradersResolved
1%

Will John Green participate in Jet Lag before 2025?

$15K17 tradersResolved
1%

By when will Reddit IPO?

$8K27 tradersResolved

By when will Malaria be Eradicated?

$4K35 tradersopen

Is this /r/Place a good business move for Reddit?

$4K55 tradersResolved
77%

Will Sam win Jet Lag S5 (NZ)?

$2K12 tradersResolved
98%

Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2025 Tax year?

$2K18 tradersResolved

Which team will win DotA International (TI) 2023 Western Europe Qualifiers?

$2K7 tradersResolved

By when will Freetrade IPO?

$2K9 tradersopen

By when will Elon Musk have another baby?

$2K9 tradersResolved

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2100?

$1K32 tradersopen
64%

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

$94816 tradersopen
22%

Will Nvidia report gross margins lower than 60% in any year by 2028?

$78311 tradersopen
56%

Will Black Students Be Less Than 10% of the Ivy League Class of 2028?

$43412 tradersopen
37%

Will the UK £100k 'tax trap' be scrapped by the 2026 Tax year?

$41212 tradersResolved

Which YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026

$38711 tradersopen

Would Oxbridge win University Challenge without college-level entries?

$2968 tradersopen
58%

Will Pax Dei reach 100k concurrent players by 2026?

$2454 tradersResolved
5%

Will Dune: Awakening reach 100k concurrent players by 2025?

$1435 tradersResolved
75%

Freetrade's market cap at IPO exceeds:

$1114 tradersResolved

Will an OSRS poll for adding the Sailing skill pass by Jan 1st 2025?

$602 tradersResolved
78%

Will GiveWell make further grants for Kangaroo Mother Care (KMC) before 2027?

$302 tradersopen
42%

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky (@ESYudkowsky) unfollow Julian (@mealreplacer) on Twitter?

$132 tradersResolved
56%

Will Pax Dei feature a PLEX-like system?

$111 tradersopen
41%