Manifold Creator
Caleb
@CalebW
Markets by Caleb
Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)
$43K241 tradersResolved
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Chatbot Arena - top 3 labs EOY 2024
$14K52 tradersResolved
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Does flossing work?
$4K59 tradersResolved
95%
Which lab's base model(s) is Cognition's Devin built on?
$3K11 tradersResolved
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Obama's Summer Playlist 2024: which artists will feature?
$1K9 tradersResolved
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Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?
$1K19 tradersopen
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Are reports that a USAF AI drone went rogue in a simulation substantively accurate?
$1K8 tradersResolved
15%
Manifold for Charity: EOY2024 exchange rate
$1K5 tradersResolved
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Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market
$89221 tradersopen
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Will Trump cancel the AI National Security Memorandum? (within first 100 days)
$7817 tradersResolved
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In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
$58813 tradersopen
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What factors contributed to LATAM 800's 3/11/24 incident?
$5205 tradersopen
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Will an LLM be able to pass something equivalent to Yann LeCun's 7-gear test by the end of 2024?
$50514 tradersResolved
70%
In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?
$28810 tradersopen
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How many OpenAI employee letter-signers will recant? (EOY2024)
$2838 tradersResolved
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Did DeepSeek use a cluster of more than 5,000 H100s in 2024?
$27911 tradersopen
30%
Does gpt-3.5-turbo have <25B parameters?
$2629 tradersopen
44%
Will Israel withdraw from Gaza? Will the Houthis stop targeting Red Sea shipping? (conditional mkt)
$2558 tradersResolved
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Did the release of Claude 3 help reduce AI x-risk?
$2269 tradersopen
60%
DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?
$993 tradersopen
26%
What's up with the UAE AI bots on X/Twitter?
$584 tradersclosed
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Most notable Chinese LLMs trained on US cloud?
$00 tradersResolved
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