Manifold Creator
Caleb Biddulph
@CDBiddulph
Markets by Caleb Biddulph
When will Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be solved?
$478K215 tradersResolved
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Will the winner of Mr. Beast's $1M Super Bowl puzzle be a Manifolder?
$168K226 tradersResolved
98%
Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?
$116K125 tradersResolved
2%
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
$110K46 tradersResolved
2%
Will the 25-foot-long crossword at Metagame be completed?
$100K21 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024?
$80K253 tradersResolved
38%
Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?
$70K24 tradersResolved
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Will Manifold users "feel that their life is better for using Sora" in 6 months?
$51K48 tradersResolved
5%
Will Sora have ads two years after launch?
$45K48 tradersResolved
10%
Will GPT-4.5 be able to draw an accurate Xbox controller?
$30K18 tradersResolved
9%
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?
$21K125 tradersResolved
70%
When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?
$19K38 tradersopen
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Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?
$11K32 tradersResolved
80%
Will MATS applications open in March?
$11K10 tradersResolved
99%
When will I mistake an AI-generated song for a popular human-created song, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
$10K39 tradersResolved
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What will be announced during OpenAI's "12 days of Shipmas?" (add your own)
$9K54 tradersResolved
—
For how many consecutive days will anyone trade in this market?
$8K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
$7K39 tradersResolved
90%
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2028?
$7K54 tradersResolved
59%
How many AI systems will OpenAI announce in one year, starting March 19, 2024?
$6K23 tradersResolved
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Will real-time text-to-video generation be viable by 2030?
$6K38 tradersopen
96%
Will MATS applications open before March 15?
$6K5 tradersResolved
3%
Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?
$5K14 tradersResolved
3%
Will an OpenAI model design an improved version of an existing drug in 2025?
$4K30 tradersResolved
47%
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?
$4K57 tradersResolved
80%
Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?
$4K35 tradersopen
12%
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?
$4K16 tradersopen
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Will GPT-4o be available to ChatGPT free users in 2025?
$3K15 tradersResolved
8%
Will I be able to buy synthetic gold by 2029?
$3K6 tradersopen
10%
Will free users be able to access GPT-4o image generation on April 15?
$3K18 tradersResolved
89%
Which option will stay above X% (X>50) for 100-X hours straight?
$2K13 tradersResolved
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How many episodes of the "Worth the Candle" webcomic will be published?
$2K5 tradersopen
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When will I mistake an AI-generated short story for a story from the New Yorker, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
$2K13 tradersopen
—
Will OpenAI create a game-playing AI that uses Sora?
$2K38 tradersopen
11%
What year will the live-action Legend of Zelda movie be released?
$2K9 tradersopen
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Will James Talarico announce he is running for U.S. President in 2028?
$2K7 tradersopen
11%
Will there be a Manifold bot that makes at least a 10% return on random 1-month markets by December 2024?
$2K15 tradersResolved
10%
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
$2K15 tradersResolved
32%
How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?
$2K21 tradersResolved
85%
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2026?
$2K19 tradersResolved
35%