Manifold Creator
Archibald Crone
@BlueDragon
Markets by Archibald Crone
Will Trump bomb Iran during his second term?
$135K190 tradersResolved
99%
[ 💣 short fuse] When will Kamala Harris announce her VP pick?
$118K324 tradersResolved
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If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?
$111K202 tradersopen
36%
Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?
$63K230 tradersResolved
1%
🐘 🇺🇸 What will be true of the RNC / Republican National Convention? (ADD RESPONSES)
$55K88 tradersResolved
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📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2024?
$45K135 tradersResolved
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🎭🏆 What will Jimmy Kimmel joke about in his Oscars monologue? (ADD RESPONSE)
$37K86 tradersResolved
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🫏 🇺🇸 What will be true of the DNC / Democratic National Convention? (ADD RESPONSES)
$29K144 tradersResolved
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Which women will vote for Trump?
$28K172 tradersResolved
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Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
$28K53 tradersResolved
1%
📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025?
$27K168 tradersResolved
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Will Elise Stefanik serve for Trump’s entire term?
$24K20 tradersResolved
8%
Will Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump on Fox News?
$24K57 tradersResolved
1%
S&P 500 closes above 6000 before 2026 midterms?
$23K16 tradersResolved
99%
Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?
$22K111 tradersResolved
99%
Will Trump's sentencing occur before the Republican National Convention?
$21K86 tradersResolved
1%
Will Tim Walz debate JD Vance?
$21K46 tradersResolved
99%
Will Kamala Harris talk about AI safety between now and Election Day?
$20K115 tradersResolved
1%
☘️🇮🇪☂️ Will the Supreme Court rule on whether Trump is allowed on the Colorado primary ballot by St Patty’s Day?
$20K20 tradersResolved
100%
How many people attended Burning Man in 2024?
$18K32 tradersResolved
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🗳️🏪💸 Prop 32: Will California raise the state minimum wage to $18 / hour?
$17K22 tradersResolved
1%
🤝 Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman reconcile before the end of 2024?
$17K66 tradersResolved
3%
🙉🙈🙊 Will the Supreme Court rule on whether Trump is allowed on the Colorado primary ballot by President’s Day?
$16K45 tradersResolved
1%
When will Sam Altman visit Mar-a-Lago?
$16K27 tradersResolved
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🗳️👩⚕️🐣 Ballot Props: Will Florida legalize abortion?
$16K54 tradersResolved
3%
🗳️🤘🏼🥬 Ballot Props: Will Florida legalize marijuana?
$15K51 tradersResolved
3%
🐸🧚🏼♂️🤹🏼 Will the Supreme Court rule on whether Trump is allowed on the Colorado primary ballot by Leap Day?
$15K52 tradersResolved
2%
♻️ 🧟 Will composting of human remains be available in Delaware by 2025?
$15K22 tradersResolved
3%
What topics will be addressed in the debate between Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis?
$14K14 tradersResolved
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If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?
$14K29 tradersopen
84%
Will any top officials leave the Trump administration over the Epstein case?
$14K87 tradersResolved
6%
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
$14K30 tradersResolved
44%
🎅🏽☃️ What North American cities will have a white Christmas in 2023?
$13K36 tradersResolved
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If Kansas City loses Super Bowl LIX, will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up?
$13K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will Robotaxis roll out in Austin as planned?
$12K74 tradersResolved
10%
Who will win Song of the Year at the 2025 Grammys
$12K23 tradersResolved
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Abortion on the ballot, in which states will it get protection?
$12K31 tradersResolved
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Will a higher % of Americans pick the winning candidate in 2024 than in 2020? [ READ DESCRIPTION ]
$11K39 tradersResolved
1%
If incorporated into the presidential debate, will mic muting benefit Harris or Trump?
$10K96 tradersResolved
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Will Kristi Noem serve for Trump’s entire term?
$10K16 tradersResolved
1%